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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Diego Sanchez won · U-DEC R3
Elo1493
Diego Sanchez
Elo1516
Jim Miller

Diego SanchezvsJim MillerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · Saturday, March 5, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Diego Sanchez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jim Miller wins(50.9%)

Actual result: Diego Sanchez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jim Miller at -185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Diego Sanchez
Red Corner
VS
Jim Miller
Blue Corner
+160
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-185
(65%)
1493
Elo
1516
44
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'8"
182.88 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego Sanchez
oldest →
W
vs Craig White · Sep 18
W
KOvs Mickey Gall · Mar 19
L
vs Michael Chiesa · Jul 19
W
vs Michel Pereira · Feb 20
L
vs Jake Matthews · Sep 20
latest
Jim Miller
oldest →
W
SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24
L
vs King Green · Apr 24
W
SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24
L
vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25
W
SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego SanchezMetricJim Miller
2.69
Strikes / min
2.92
3.02
Strikes absorbed / min
3.43
56%
Strike defense
56%
1.51
TDs / 15 min
1.49
46%
Takedown defense
47%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.33evenly matched on net striking-0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1494 vs 1554Strikes35.6 vs 25.5Takedowns1.2 vs 1.2Sub Atts0.82 vs 1.67Form-0.6 vs -0.3
Diego SanchezJim Miller

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Diego Sanchez(10 fights)Jim Miller(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -23.5|Blue +23.5
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red +19.0|Blue -19.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego SanchezTargetJim Miller

By target zone

35
35% acc · 73%
Head
37
40% acc · 66%
12
57% acc · 25%
Body
10
77% acc · 18%
1
33% acc · 2%
Leg
9
90% acc · 16%

By position

40
34% acc · 83%
Distance
48
46% acc · 86%
3
75% acc · 6%
Clinch
4
57% acc · 7%
5
100% acc · 10%
Ground
4
100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Diego Sanchez rounds
0
even
1
Jim Miller rounds
Round 1Diego Sanchez edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control2:28
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Jim Miller edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control0:55
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:24Control
Round 3Diego Sanchez edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control0:01
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
48 / 125
Sig Strikes
56 / 115
36.3%
Sig Str %
49%
71 / 148
Total Strikes
61 / 120
2 / 9
TDs
0 / 1
25%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:24
Ctrl Time
0:24

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jim Miller12 / 2715 / 300 / 00
1Diego Sanchez10 / 2731 / 481 / 20
2Jim Miller24 / 3725 / 380 / 00
2Diego Sanchez10 / 3512 / 371 / 40
3Jim Miller20 / 5121 / 520 / 10
3Diego Sanchez28 / 6328 / 630 / 30

Diego Sanchez

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights19

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights40