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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jake Matthews won · U-DEC

Elo1493

Elo1522

Diego SanchezvsJake MatthewsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · Saturday, September 26, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Jake Matthews won

U-DEC

Model Prediction: Jake Matthews wins(68.8%)

Actual result: Jake Matthews wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jake Matthews at -715 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Matthews has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Diego Sanchez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Diego Sanchez

Red Corner

Jake Matthews

Blue Corner

+470

(18%)

Vegas Odds

-715

(88%)

1493

Elo

1522

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego Sanchez

oldest →

KOvs Matt Brown · Nov 17

vs Craig White · Sep 18

KOvs Mickey Gall · Mar 19

vs Michael Chiesa · Jul 19

vs Michel Pereira · Feb 20

latest

Jake Matthews

oldest →

vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24

vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25

SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25

SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25

DECvs Carlston Harris · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego SanchezMetricJake Matthews

2.69

Strikes / min

3.34

3.02

Strikes absorbed / min

2.62

56%

Strike defense

60%

1.51

TDs / 15 min

1.44

46%

Takedown defense

64%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.33Δ 1.05 — meaningful gap+0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Diego SanchezJake Matthews

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Diego Sanchez(10 fights)Jake Matthews(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -29.7|Blue +29.7

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego SanchezTargetJake Matthews

By target zone

21% acc · 48%

Head

48% acc · 96%

33% acc · 16%

Body

100% acc · 4%

75% acc · 36%

Leg

By position

30% acc · 92%

Distance

43% acc · 58%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

50% acc · 8%

Ground

58% acc · 40%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Diego Sanchez rounds

even

Jake Matthews rounds

Round 1Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:29Control

Round 2Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

4:23Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 81

Sig Strikes

72 / 148

31.3%

Sig Str %

48.3%

38 / 95

Total Strikes

93 / 174

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

4:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jake Matthews	22 / 46	24 / 51	1 / 2
1	Diego Sanchez	11 / 35	11 / 35	0 / 1
2	Jake Matthews	23 / 53	23 / 53	0 / 0
2	Diego Sanchez	12 / 40	12 / 40	0 / 0
3	Jake Matthews	27 / 49	46 / 70	0 / 0
3	Diego Sanchez	2 / 6	15 / 20	0 / 0

Diego Sanchez

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights19

Jake Matthews

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights25