← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Diego Sanchez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1367

Diego SanchezvsCraig WhiteUFC Prediction Result

UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · Saturday, September 8, 2018Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Diego Sanchez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Diego Sanchez wins(73.5%)

Actual result: Diego Sanchez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Diego Sanchez at +175 American odds

+$175 profit

$275 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Diego Sanchez has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Diego Sanchez (53.5%).
Craig White has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Diego Sanchez

Red Corner

Craig White

Blue Corner

+175

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-210

(68%)

1493

Elo

1367

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'2"

182.88 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego Sanchez

oldest →

KOvs Matt Brown · Nov 17

KOvs Mickey Gall · Mar 19

vs Michael Chiesa · Jul 19

vs Michel Pereira · Feb 20

vs Jake Matthews · Sep 20

latest

Craig White

oldest →

KOvs Neil Magny · May 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego SanchezMetricCraig White

2.69

Strikes / min

1.23

3.02

Strikes absorbed / min

3.28

56%

Strike defense

39%

1.51

TDs / 15 min

0.00

46%

Takedown defense

50%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.33Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap-2.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Diego SanchezCraig White

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Diego Sanchez(10 fights)Craig White(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +125.3|Blue -125.3

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +2.3|Blue -2.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +197.0|Blue -197.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego SanchezTargetCraig White

By target zone

52% acc · 74%

Head

41% acc · 89%

100% acc · 26%

Body

67% acc · 11%

Leg

By position

38% acc · 7%

Distance

47% acc · 44%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

62% acc · 91%

Ground

38% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Diego Sanchez rounds

even

Craig White rounds

Round 1Diego Sanchez edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control4:54

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Diego Sanchez edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control4:43

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Diego Sanchez edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control4:45

Knockdowns0

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 77

Sig Strikes

18 / 42

59.3%

Sig Str %

51%

82 / 124

Total Strikes

64 / 94

3 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

83.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

14:22

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Craig White	8 / 9	15 / 18	0 / 0	1
1	Diego Sanchez	13 / 26	29 / 48	1 / 1	0
2	Craig White	7 / 14	30 / 40	0 / 0	0
2	Diego Sanchez	12 / 19	18 / 28	1 / 2	0
3	Craig White	3 / 19	19 / 36	0 / 0	0
3	Diego Sanchez	21 / 32	35 / 48	1 / 1	0

Diego Sanchez

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights19

Craig White

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights2