Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Guido Cannetti won · U-DEC R3

Elo1365

Elo1497

Diego RivasvsGuido CannettiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman · Saturday, May 19, 2018Santiago, Chile

Official fight result

Guido Cannetti won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Guido Cannetti wins(59.4%)

Actual result: Guido Cannetti wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Guido Cannetti at +155 American odds

+$155 profit

$255 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Guido Cannetti (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Diego Rivas

Red Corner

Guido Cannetti

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1365

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego Rivas

oldest →

DECvs Rodolfo Rubio · Nov 14

KOvs Noad Lahat · Feb 16

vs Jose Quinonez · Aug 17

latest

Guido Cannetti

oldest →

KOvs Danaa Batgerel · Mar 20

vs Mana Martinez · Aug 21

KOvs Kris Moutinho · Mar 22

SUBvs Randy Costa · Oct 22

SUBvs Mario Bautista · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego RivasMetricGuido Cannetti

1.37

Strikes / min

3.44

2.14

Strikes absorbed / min

2.84

52%

Strike defense

51%

1.79

TDs / 15 min

2.27

64%

Takedown defense

64%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.77Δ 1.37 — meaningful gap+0.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Diego RivasGuido Cannetti

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Diego Rivas(4 fights)Guido Cannetti(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -131.4|Blue +131.4

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +162.0|Blue -162.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego RivasTargetGuido Cannetti

By target zone

43% acc · 45%

Head

34% acc · 48%

41% acc · 32%

Body

55% acc · 24%

83% acc · 23%

Leg

100% acc · 28%

By position

26% acc · 36%

Distance

31% acc · 40%

93% acc · 59%

Clinch

58% acc · 28%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

89% acc · 32%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Diego Rivas rounds

even

Guido Cannetti rounds

Round 1Guido Cannetti edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control1:20

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:37Control

Round 2Guido Cannetti edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:15Control

Round 3Diego Rivas edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control1:44

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 46

Sig Strikes

25 / 53

59.3%

Sig Str %

54%

26 / 50

Total Strikes

44 / 75

2 / 5

TDs

1 / 3

50%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

3:04

Ctrl Time

5:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Guido Cannetti	13 / 19	25 / 33	1 / 2	0
1	Diego Rivas	3 / 4	3 / 4	0 / 2	0
2	Guido Cannetti	4 / 6	11 / 14	0 / 0	0
2	Diego Rivas	3 / 5	6 / 8	1 / 2	1
3	Guido Cannetti	8 / 28	8 / 28	0 / 1	1
3	Diego Rivas	16 / 37	17 / 38	1 / 1	0

Diego Rivas

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4

Guido Cannetti

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10