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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Nik Lentz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1395

Diego NunesvsNik LentzUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping · Saturday, January 19, 2013Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Nik Lentz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDiego Nunes: Well-roundedvsNik Lentz: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Nik Lentz wins(51.7%)

Actual result: Nik Lentz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nik Lentz at +125 American odds

+$125 profit

$225 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Diego Nunes has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Diego Nunes

Red Corner

Nik Lentz

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1490

Elo

1395

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

170.18 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego Nunes

oldest →

vs Mike Brown · Jan 11

vs Kenny Florian · Jun 11

vs Manvel Gamburyan · Dec 11

vs Dennis Siver · Apr 12

vs Bart Palaszewski · Oct 12

latest

Nik LentzL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gray Maynard · Oct 18

vs Scott Holtzman · Feb 19

KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 19

vs Arnold Allen · Jan 20

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego NunesMetricNik Lentz

2.72

Strikes / min

3.44

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

58%

Strike defense

50%

1.18

TDs / 15 min

3.30

65%

Takedown defense

43%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Diego NunesNik Lentz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Diego Nunes(6 fights)Nik Lentz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +95.3|Blue -95.3

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Layoff

Red -55.0|Blue +55.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego NunesTargetNik Lentz

By target zone

50% acc · 67%

Head

67% acc · 61%

67% acc · 22%

Body

100% acc · 13%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

94% acc · 27%

By position

52% acc · 72%

Distance

43% acc · 16%

60% acc · 17%

Clinch

94% acc · 29%

100% acc · 11%

Ground

86% acc · 55%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Diego Nunes rounds

even

Nik Lentz rounds

Round 1Nik Lentz edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

5Takedowns

4:24Control

Round 2Nik Lentz edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:14Control

Round 3Nik Lentz edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

3:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 32

Sig Strikes

56 / 74

54%

Sig Str %

74%

19 / 33

Total Strikes

205 / 234

0 / 0

TDs

10 / 21

—

TD %

48%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

12:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nik Lentz	25 / 28	63 / 70	5 / 10
1	Diego Nunes	1 / 4	1 / 4	0 / 0
2	Nik Lentz	19 / 25	85 / 97	1 / 2
2	Diego Nunes	6 / 7	6 / 7	0 / 0
3	Nik Lentz	12 / 21	57 / 67	4 / 9
3	Diego Nunes	11 / 21	12 / 22	0 / 0

Diego Nunes

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6

Nik Lentz

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22