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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Diego Lopes won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1549

Elo1534

Diego LopesvsSteve GarciaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Freedom 250 · Sunday, June 14, 2026Washington, USA

Official fight result

Diego Lopes won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:42

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Steve Garcia

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Steve Garcia at +153 American odds · hypothetical only

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Style matchupDiego Lopes: Submission grapplervsSteve Garcia: Elusive striker

The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.

Model Prediction: Diego Lopes wins(51.5%)

Actual result: Diego Lopes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Steve Garcia enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Diego Lopes is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Steve Garcia has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Steve Garcia has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Steve Garcia has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Diego Lopes

Red Corner

Steve Garcia

Blue Corner

-187

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+153

(40%)

1549

Elo

1534

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego Lopes

oldest →

vs Dan Ige · Jun 24

vs Brian Ortega · Sep 24

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Apr 25

KOvs Jean Silva · Sep 25

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Jan 26

latest

Steve GarciaW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Melquizael Costa · Dec 23

KOvs SeungWoo Choi · Jul 24

KOvs Kyle Nelson · Sep 24

vs Calvin Kattar · Jul 25

KOvs David Onama · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego LopesMetricSteve Garcia

3.83

Strikes / min

5.39

4.56

Strikes absorbed / min

2.12

45%

Strike defense

59%

0.88

TDs / 15 min

0.86

68%

Takedown defense

88%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.73Δ 4.00 — meaningful gap+3.27

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Diego Lopes(10 fights)Steve Garcia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +15.6|Blue -15.6

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego LopesTargetSteve Garcia

By target zone

37% acc · 88%

Head

37% acc · 70%

25% acc · 8%

Body

75% acc · 6%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 23%

By position

29% acc · 71%

Distance

45% acc · 100%

Clinch

88% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Diego Lopes rounds

even

Steve Garcia rounds

Round 1Steve Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Diego Lopes edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns1

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 66

Sig Strikes

47 / 104

35%

Sig Str %

45.5%

24 / 66

Total Strikes

47 / 104

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Steve Garcia	23 / 57	23 / 57	0 / 0
1	Diego Lopes	6 / 32	6 / 32	0 / 1
2	Steve Garcia	24 / 47	24 / 47	0 / 0
2	Diego Lopes	18 / 34	18 / 34	0 / 0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Diego Lopes

Odds

-187

Market-implied probability

Steve Garcia 38%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Diego Lopes$153

Steve Garcia (model pick · research)$253

38% market-implied · model 47% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked Jun 4, 2026, 3:29 PM UTC · never rewritten

Diego Lopes

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9

Steve Garcia

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10