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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Diego Lopes won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1549

Elo1546

Diego LopesvsPat SabatiniUFC Prediction Result

UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Saturday, November 11, 2023New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Diego Lopes won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:30

Style matchupDiego Lopes: Submission grapplervsPat Sabatini: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Diego Lopes wins(61.6%)

Actual result: Diego Lopes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Diego Lopes at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Pat Sabatini enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Diego Lopes is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Pat Sabatini has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Diego Lopes has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Diego Lopes

Red Corner

Pat Sabatini

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1549

Elo

1546

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego Lopes

oldest →

vs Brian Ortega · Sep 24

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Apr 25

KOvs Jean Silva · Sep 25

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Jan 26

KOvs Steve Garcia · Jun 26

latest

Pat SabatiniW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Lucas Almeida · Jun 23

SUBvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 24

vs Joanderson Brito · Apr 25

vs Chepe Mariscal · Nov 25

DECvs William Gomis · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego LopesMetricPat Sabatini

3.83

Strikes / min

1.69

4.56

Strikes absorbed / min

1.16

45%

Strike defense

54%

0.88

TDs / 15 min

4.27

68%

Takedown defense

50%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.73Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap+0.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Diego LopesPat Sabatini

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Diego Lopes(10 fights)Pat Sabatini(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.3|Blue -3.3

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego LopesTargetPat Sabatini

By target zone

73% acc · 85%

Head

43% acc · 43%

100% acc · 15%

Body

75% acc · 43%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

50% acc · 31%

Distance

50% acc · 71%

100% acc · 23%

Clinch

100% acc · 14%

86% acc · 46%

Ground

100% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Diego Lopes rounds

even

Pat Sabatini rounds

Round 1Diego Lopes edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 18

Sig Strikes

7 / 12

72%

Sig Str %

58%

13 / 18

Total Strikes

10 / 16

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Pat Sabatini	7 / 12	10 / 16	0 / 2	0
1	Diego Lopes	13 / 18	13 / 18	0 / 1	0

Diego Lopes

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9

Pat Sabatini

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11