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Featherweight

5 Rounds

Diego Lopes won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1549

Elo1557

Diego LopesvsJean SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Saturday, September 13, 2025San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Diego Lopes won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:48

Style matchupDiego Lopes: Submission grapplervsJean Silva: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Diego Lopes wins(51.9%)

Actual result: Diego Lopes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Diego Lopes at +176 American odds

+$176 profit

$276 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jean Silva enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Diego Lopes

Red Corner

Jean Silva

Blue Corner

+176

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-210

(68%)

1549

Elo

1557

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'7"

182.88 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego Lopes

oldest →

vs Dan Ige · Jun 24

vs Brian Ortega · Sep 24

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Apr 25

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Jan 26

KOvs Steve Garcia · Jun 26

latest

Jean SilvaW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Charles Jourdain · Jun 24

KOvs Drew Dober · Jul 24

KOvs Melsik Baghdasaryan · Feb 25

SUBvs Bryce Mitchell · Apr 25

vs Arnold Allen · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego LopesMetricJean Silva

3.83

Strikes / min

4.82

4.56

Strikes absorbed / min

4.50

45%

Strike defense

53%

0.88

TDs / 15 min

1.20

68%

Takedown defense

78%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.73Δ 1.05 — meaningful gap+0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Diego LopesJean Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Diego Lopes(10 fights)Jean Silva(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -7.5|Blue +7.5

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego LopesTargetJean Silva

By target zone

53% acc · 85%

Head

39% acc · 60%

100% acc · 1%

Body

59% acc · 23%

63% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 16%

By position

48% acc · 42%

Distance

47% acc · 98%

50% acc · 1%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

62% acc · 57%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Diego Lopes rounds

even

Jean Silva rounds

Round 1Diego Lopes edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns1

Control1:58

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Diego Lopes edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns2

Control0:42

Knockdowns1

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

74 / 135

Sig Strikes

43 / 91

54%

Sig Str %

48%

86 / 154

Total Strikes

43 / 91

3 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

83%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:40

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jean Silva	10 / 20	10 / 20	0 / 0
1	Diego Lopes	43 / 77	50 / 86	1 / 1
2	Jean Silva	33 / 71	33 / 71	0 / 0
2	Diego Lopes	31 / 58	36 / 68	2 / 3

Diego Lopes

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9

Jean Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights7