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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Diego Lopes won · SUB R1

Elo1549

Elo1472

Diego LopesvsGavin TuckerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · Saturday, August 5, 2023Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Diego Lopes won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:38

Style matchupDiego Lopes: Submission grapplervsGavin Tucker: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Diego Lopes wins(80.2%)

Actual result: Diego Lopes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Diego Lopes at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gavin Tucker has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Diego Lopes has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gavin Tucker (53.5%).
Diego Lopes has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Diego Lopes

Red Corner

Gavin Tucker

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+142

(41%)

1549

Elo

1472

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'6"

182.88 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego Lopes

oldest →

vs Brian Ortega · Sep 24

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Apr 25

KOvs Jean Silva · Sep 25

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Jan 26

KOvs Steve Garcia · Jun 26

latest

Gavin Tucker

oldest →

vs Rick Glenn · Sep 17

SUBvs Seungwoo Choi · Jul 19

SUBvs Justin Jaynes · Aug 20

vs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 20

KOvs Dan Ige · Mar 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego LopesMetricGavin Tucker

3.83

Strikes / min

4.29

4.56

Strikes absorbed / min

4.18

45%

Strike defense

57%

0.88

TDs / 15 min

3.13

68%

Takedown defense

53%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.73evenly matched on net striking+0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Diego LopesGavin Tucker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Diego Lopes(10 fights)Gavin Tucker(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +77.2|Blue -77.2

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -784.0|Blue +784.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego LopesTargetGavin Tucker

By target zone

0% acc

Head

0% acc

Body

0% acc

Leg

By position

0% acc

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Diego Lopes rounds

even

Gavin Tucker rounds

Round 1Gavin Tucker edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

0Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:39Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0 / 4

Sig Strikes

0 / 6

Sig Str %

0 / 4

Total Strikes

0 / 6

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gavin Tucker	0 / 6	0 / 6	1 / 1	0
1	Diego Lopes	0 / 4	0 / 4	0 / 0	3

Diego Lopes

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9

Gavin Tucker

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights7