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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Diego Ferreira won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1489

Elo1502

Diego FerreiravsMichael JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · Saturday, May 20, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Diego Ferreira won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:50

Style matchupDiego Ferreira: Well-roundedvsMichael Johnson: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Diego Ferreira wins(70.2%)

Actual result: Diego Ferreira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Diego Ferreira at -146 American odds

+$68 profit

$168 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Johnson has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Johnson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Diego Ferreira

Red Corner

Michael Johnson

Blue Corner

-146

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+124

(45%)

1489

Elo

1502

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego FerreiraL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · May 21

KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Dec 21

KOvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 24

vs Grant Dawson · Jan 25

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Sep 25

latest

Michael Johnson

oldest →

vs Marc Diakiese · Dec 22

vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25

KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego FerreiraMetricMichael Johnson

4.70

Strikes / min

4.27

3.46

Strikes absorbed / min

3.78

55%

Strike defense

58%

0.82

TDs / 15 min

0.57

57%

Takedown defense

81%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.24evenly matched on net striking+0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Diego FerreiraMichael Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Diego Ferreira(10 fights)Michael Johnson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -13.7|Blue +13.7

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +350.0|Blue -350.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego FerreiraTargetMichael Johnson

By target zone

37% acc · 57%

Head

38% acc · 41%

48% acc · 33%

Body

85% acc · 53%

75% acc · 10%

Leg

50% acc · 6%

By position

41% acc · 97%

Distance

55% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Diego Ferreira rounds

even

Michael Johnson rounds

Round 1Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Diego Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 71

Sig Strikes

32 / 58

40%

Sig Str %

49.5%

30 / 71

Total Strikes

32 / 58

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michael Johnson	27 / 46	27 / 46	0 / 0
1	Diego Ferreira	24 / 55	24 / 55	0 / 1
2	Michael Johnson	5 / 12	5 / 12	0 / 0
2	Diego Ferreira	6 / 16	6 / 16	0 / 1

Diego Ferreira

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17

Michael Johnson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights32