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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Diego Ferreira won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1489

Elo1473

Diego FerreiravsMateusz RebeckiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · Saturday, May 11, 2024St. Louis, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Diego Ferreira won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:51

Style matchupDiego Ferreira: Well-roundedvsMateusz Rebecki: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Diego Ferreira wins(51.7%)

Actual result: Diego Ferreira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mateusz Rebecki enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Mateusz Rebecki (53.5%).
Diego Ferreira has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Diego Ferreira

Red Corner

Mateusz Rebecki

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1489

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'7"

187.96 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego FerreiraL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · May 21

KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Dec 21

KOvs Michael Johnson · May 23

vs Grant Dawson · Jan 25

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Sep 25

latest

Mateusz RebeckiL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Roosevelt Roberts · Nov 23

vs Myktybek Orolbai · Oct 24

vs Chris Duncan · Aug 25

vs Ludovit Klein · Oct 25

SUBvs Grant Dawson · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego FerreiraMetricMateusz Rebecki

4.70

Strikes / min

4.79

3.46

Strikes absorbed / min

4.36

55%

Strike defense

54%

0.82

TDs / 15 min

3.05

57%

Takedown defense

53%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.24evenly matched on net striking+0.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Diego FerreiraMateusz Rebecki

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Diego Ferreira(10 fights)Mateusz Rebecki(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +15.6|Blue -15.6

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +175.0|Blue -175.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego FerreiraTargetMateusz Rebecki

By target zone

50% acc · 76%

Head

31% acc · 65%

55% acc · 23%

Body

52% acc · 21%

100% acc · 1%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

46% acc · 76%

Distance

36% acc · 88%

0% acc

Clinch

78% acc · 24%

Ground

75% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Diego Ferreira rounds

even

Mateusz Rebecki rounds

Round 1Mateusz Rebecki edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:16Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Diego Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns1

Control0:25

16Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

0:55Control

Round 3Diego Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes62

Takedowns2

Control1:47

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

123 / 241

Sig Strikes

52 / 137

48.3%

Sig Str %

34.3%

151 / 272

Total Strikes

60 / 146

3 / 3

TDs

4 / 5

100%

TD %

87.5%

Sub Att

Rev

2:12

Ctrl Time

2:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mateusz Rebecki	30 / 60	35 / 66	0 / 0
1	Diego Ferreira	21 / 65	28 / 73	0 / 0
2	Mateusz Rebecki	16 / 48	19 / 51	3 / 4
2	Diego Ferreira	40 / 79	49 / 88	1 / 1
3	Mateusz Rebecki	6 / 29	6 / 29	1 / 1
3	Diego Ferreira	62 / 97	74 / 111	2 / 2

Diego Ferreira

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17

Mateusz Rebecki

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights9