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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mateusz Gamrot won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1489

Elo1525

Diego FerreiravsMateusz GamrotUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Saturday, December 18, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mateusz Gamrot won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:26

Style matchupDiego Ferreira: Well-roundedvsMateusz Gamrot: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot wins(58.3%)

Actual result: Mateusz Gamrot wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mateusz Gamrot at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mateusz Gamrot has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mateusz Gamrot (53.5%).
Diego Ferreira has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Diego Ferreira

Red Corner

Mateusz Gamrot

Blue Corner

+200

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1489

Elo

1525

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego FerreiraL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · May 21

KOvs Michael Johnson · May 23

KOvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 24

vs Grant Dawson · Jan 25

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Sep 25

latest

Mateusz Gamrot

oldest →

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Mar 24

vs Dan Hooker · Aug 24

vs Ludovit Klein · May 25

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Oct 25

SUBvs Esteban Ribovics · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego FerreiraMetricMateusz Gamrot

4.70

Strikes / min

3.21

3.46

Strikes absorbed / min

2.81

55%

Strike defense

60%

0.82

TDs / 15 min

5.22

57%

Takedown defense

83%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.24evenly matched on net striking+0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Diego FerreiraMateusz Gamrot

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Diego Ferreira(10 fights)Mateusz Gamrot(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -35.8|Blue +35.8

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego FerreiraTargetMateusz Gamrot

By target zone

26% acc · 50%

Head

33% acc · 60%

52% acc · 33%

Body

71% acc · 20%

67% acc · 17%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

36% acc · 97%

Distance

41% acc · 88%

33% acc · 3%

Clinch

Ground

75% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Diego Ferreira rounds

even

Mateusz Gamrot rounds

Round 1Mateusz Gamrot edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

0:27Control

Round 2Diego Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:38Control

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 101

Sig Strikes

25 / 58

36%

Sig Str %

42.5%

37 / 104

Total Strikes

31 / 67

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 7

—

TD %

62.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mateusz Gamrot	14 / 31	20 / 39	3 / 3
1	Diego Ferreira	18 / 56	19 / 59	0 / 0
2	Mateusz Gamrot	11 / 27	11 / 28	1 / 4
2	Diego Ferreira	18 / 45	18 / 45	0 / 0

Diego Ferreira

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17

Mateusz Gamrot

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12