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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Diego Ferreira won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1489

Elo1496

Diego FerreiravsKyle NelsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · Saturday, December 8, 2018Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Diego Ferreira won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:23

Style matchupDiego Ferreira: Well-roundedvsKyle Nelson: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Diego Ferreira wins(72.3%)

Actual result: Diego Ferreira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Diego Ferreira at -550 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Diego Ferreira is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Kyle Nelson has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Nelson (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Diego Ferreira

Red Corner

Kyle Nelson

Blue Corner

-550

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+425

(19%)

1489

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego FerreiraL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Dec 21

KOvs Michael Johnson · May 23

KOvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 24

vs Grant Dawson · Jan 25

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Sep 25

latest

Kyle Nelson

oldest →

vs Fernando Padilla · Sep 23

KOvs Bill Algeo · Mar 24

KOvs Steve Garcia · Sep 24

vs Matt Frevola · Oct 25

KOvs Terrance McKinney · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego FerreiraMetricKyle Nelson

4.70

Strikes / min

3.60

3.46

Strikes absorbed / min

4.58

55%

Strike defense

53%

0.82

TDs / 15 min

1.18

57%

Takedown defense

66%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.24Δ 2.22 — meaningful gap-0.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Diego FerreiraKyle Nelson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Diego Ferreira(10 fights)Kyle Nelson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -7.3|Blue +7.3

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego FerreiraTargetKyle Nelson

By target zone

48% acc · 78%

Head

32% acc · 60%

73% acc · 15%

Body

60% acc · 30%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

67% acc · 10%

By position

49% acc · 50%

Distance

40% acc · 95%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

57% acc · 48%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Diego Ferreira rounds

even

Kyle Nelson rounds

Round 1Diego Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns1

Control2:21

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 2Diego Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control1:07

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 102

Sig Strikes

20 / 50

52%

Sig Str %

20%

63 / 112

Total Strikes

20 / 50

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

66.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:28

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kyle Nelson	20 / 49	20 / 49	0 / 0	0
1	Diego Ferreira	40 / 75	46 / 81	1 / 3	1
2	Kyle Nelson	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0
2	Diego Ferreira	14 / 27	17 / 31	1 / 1	0

Diego Ferreira

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17

Kyle Nelson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11