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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Gregor Gillespie won · KO/TKO

Elo1489

Elo1494

Diego FerreiravsGregor GillespieUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · Saturday, May 8, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gregor Gillespie won

KO/TKO

Style matchupDiego Ferreira: Well-roundedvsGregor Gillespie: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Gregor Gillespie wins(61.0%)

Actual result: Gregor Gillespie wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gregor Gillespie at -142 American odds

+$70 profit

$170 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gregor Gillespie is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Diego Ferreira has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Gregor Gillespie has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Diego Ferreira

Red Corner

Gregor Gillespie

Blue Corner

+122

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-142

(59%)

1489

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

187.96 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego FerreiraL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Dec 21

KOvs Michael Johnson · May 23

KOvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 24

vs Grant Dawson · Jan 25

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Sep 25

latest

Gregor Gillespie

oldest →

SUBvs Jason Gonzalez · Sep 17

KOvs Jordan Rinaldi · Jan 18

SUBvs Vinc Pichel · Jun 18

KOvs Yancy Medeiros · Jan 19

KOvs Kevin Lee · Nov 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego FerreiraMetricGregor Gillespie

4.70

Strikes / min

3.74

3.46

Strikes absorbed / min

2.30

55%

Strike defense

57%

0.82

TDs / 15 min

6.86

57%

Takedown defense

100%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.24evenly matched on net striking+1.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Diego FerreiraGregor Gillespie

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Diego Ferreira(10 fights)Gregor Gillespie(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.0|Blue +5.0

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -462.0|Blue +462.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego FerreiraTargetGregor Gillespie

By target zone

52% acc · 100%

Head

71% acc · 82%

Body

78% acc · 16%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

26% acc · 32%

Distance

53% acc · 20%

100% acc · 10%

Clinch

75% acc · 13%

100% acc · 58%

Ground

81% acc · 67%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Diego Ferreira rounds

even

Gregor Gillespie rounds

Round 1Diego Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:58

10Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:28Control

Round 2Gregor Gillespie edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:08

35Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:42Control

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 60

Sig Strikes

45 / 62

45%

Sig Str %

66.5%

37 / 70

Total Strikes

53 / 70

0 / 2

TDs

4 / 8

TD %

46.5%

Sub Att

Rev

1:06

Ctrl Time

5:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gregor Gillespie	10 / 20	10 / 20	3 / 5
1	Diego Ferreira	26 / 45	30 / 52	0 / 1
2	Gregor Gillespie	35 / 42	43 / 50	1 / 3
2	Diego Ferreira	5 / 15	7 / 18	0 / 1

Diego Ferreira

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17

Gregor Gillespie

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8