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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Beneil Dariush won · S-DEC
Elo1489
Diego Ferreira editorial illustration
Elo1480
Beneil Dariush

Diego FerreiravsBeneil DariushUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · Saturday, February 6, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Beneil Dariush won

S-DEC

Style matchupDiego Ferreira: Well-roundedvsBeneil Dariush: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Diego Ferreira wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Beneil Dariush wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Diego Ferreira at -125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Diego Ferreira is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Beneil Dariush has lost 88% of fights by KO.
  • Beneil Dariush has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Beneil Dariush (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Diego Ferreira
Red Corner
VS
Beneil Dariush
Blue Corner
-125
(56%)
Vegas Odds
+105
(49%)
1489
Elo
1480
41
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'10"
187.96 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego FerreiraL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Dec 21
W
KOvs Michael Johnson · May 23
W
KOvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 24
L
vs Grant Dawson · Jan 25
L
KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Sep 25
latest
Beneil DariushL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 23
L
KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Dec 23
W
vs Renato Moicano · Jun 25
L
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Nov 25
L
KOvs Quillan Salkilld · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego FerreiraMetricBeneil Dariush
4.70
Strikes / min
3.74
3.46
Strikes absorbed / min
2.63
55%
Strike defense
57%
0.82
TDs / 15 min
2.21
57%
Takedown defense
82%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.24evenly matched on net striking+1.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1615 vs 1645Strikes5.1 vs 4.0Takedowns1.0 vs 1.8Sub Atts1.00 vs 1.10Form1.0 vs 1.0
Diego FerreiraBeneil Dariush

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Diego Ferreira(10 fights)Beneil Dariush(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +8.4|Blue -8.4
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +203.0|Blue -203.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego FerreiraTargetBeneil Dariush

By target zone

43
41% acc · 80%
Head
46
47% acc · 74%
10
67% acc · 19%
Body
10
83% acc · 16%
1
50% acc · 2%
Leg
6
100% acc · 10%

By position

45
41% acc · 83%
Distance
51
55% acc · 82%
5
100% acc · 9%
Clinch
3
60% acc · 5%
4
57% acc · 7%
Ground
8
44% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Diego Ferreira rounds
0
even
3
Beneil Dariush rounds
Round 1Beneil Dariush edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:06
29Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:06Control
Round 2Beneil Dariush edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:16
10Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
3:37Control
Round 3Beneil Dariush edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:36
23Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:40Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
54 / 121
Sig Strikes
62 / 116
47.7%
Sig Str %
51.3%
74 / 145
Total Strikes
74 / 132
0 / 1
TDs
5 / 15
0%
TD %
33.7%
0
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
0
0:58
Ctrl Time
7:23

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Beneil Dariush29 / 5132 / 541 / 40
1Diego Ferreira21 / 3924 / 420 / 10
2Beneil Dariush10 / 2218 / 343 / 50
2Diego Ferreira14 / 2430 / 420 / 00
3Beneil Dariush23 / 4324 / 441 / 60
3Diego Ferreira19 / 5820 / 610 / 00

Diego Ferreira

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights17

Beneil Dariush

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights24