Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Featherweight
3 Rounds
Diego Brandao won · SUB R1
Elo1490
Diego Brandao
Elo1490
Pablo Garza

Diego BrandaovsPablo GarzaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Latifi · Saturday, April 6, 2013Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Diego Brandao won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:27

Style matchupDiego Brandao: WrestlervsPablo Garza: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Pablo Garza wins(62.1%)

Actual result: Diego Brandao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Pablo Garza at +200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Diego Brandao has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Diego Brandao has 65pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Pablo Garza has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Diego Brandao
Red Corner
VS
Pablo Garza
Blue Corner
-220
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+200
(33%)
1490
Elo
1490
39
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
6'1"
162.56 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego Brandao
oldest →
L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Dec 13
L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 14
W
KOvs Jimy Hettes · Apr 15
W
KOvs Katsunori Kikuno · Sep 15
L
SUBvs Brian Ortega · Jan 16
latest
Pablo Garza
oldest →
W
KOvs Fredson Paixao · Dec 10
W
SUBvs Yves Jabouin · Apr 11
L
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Nov 11
L
vs Dennis Bermudez · May 12
W
vs Mark Hominick · Nov 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego BrandaoMetricPablo Garza
2.94
Strikes / min
3.37
3.38
Strikes absorbed / min
2.70
62%
Strike defense
50%
3.21
TDs / 15 min
0.94
80%
Takedown defense
15%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.44Δ 1.11 — meaningful gap+0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1516 vs 1512Strikes25.0 vs 30.6Takedowns1.3 vs 0.4Sub Atts0.33 vs 0.60Form0.3 vs 0.2
Diego BrandaoPablo Garza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Diego Brandao(10 fights)Pablo Garza(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +35.0|Blue -35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego BrandaoTargetPablo Garza

By target zone

4
36% acc · 44%
Head
2
17% acc · 50%
2
100% acc · 22%
Body
1
100% acc · 25%
3
60% acc · 33%
Leg
1
100% acc · 25%

By position

7
50% acc · 78%
Distance
3
23% acc · 75%
0
0% acc
Clinch
1
100% acc · 25%
2
67% acc · 22%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Diego Brandao rounds
0
even
0
Pablo Garza rounds
Round 1Diego Brandao edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control1:40
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
9 / 18
Sig Strikes
4 / 14
50%
Sig Str %
28%
18 / 27
Total Strikes
6 / 17
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 2
—
TD %
50%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:40
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Pablo Garza4 / 146 / 171 / 20
1Diego Brandao9 / 1818 / 270 / 01

Diego Brandao

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights10

Pablo Garza

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights6