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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Diego Brandao won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1352

Diego BrandaovsJoey GambinoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · Saturday, October 13, 2012Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Diego Brandao won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Diego Brandao wins(72.3%)

Actual result: Diego Brandao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Diego Brandao at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Diego Brandao has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Diego Brandao has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Joey Gambino has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Diego Brandao

Red Corner

Joey Gambino

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+230

(30%)

1490

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

162.56 cm

Reach

178 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego Brandao

oldest →

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Dec 13

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 14

KOvs Jimy Hettes · Apr 15

KOvs Katsunori Kikuno · Sep 15

SUBvs Brian Ortega · Jan 16

latest

Joey Gambino

oldest →

SUBvs Steven Siler · Jun 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego BrandaoMetricJoey Gambino

2.94

Strikes / min

2.47

3.38

Strikes absorbed / min

2.53

62%

Strike defense

51%

3.21

TDs / 15 min

0.00

80%

Takedown defense

42%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44evenly matched on net striking-0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Diego BrandaoJoey Gambino

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Diego Brandao(10 fights)Joey Gambino(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +138.8|Blue -138.8

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +27.0|Blue -27.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego BrandaoTargetJoey Gambino

By target zone

37% acc · 67%

Head

25% acc · 56%

50% acc · 12%

Body

75% acc · 23%

78% acc · 21%

Leg

89% acc · 21%

By position

35% acc · 61%

Distance

32% acc · 85%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

59% acc · 30%

Ground

80% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Diego Brandao rounds

even

Joey Gambino rounds

Round 1Diego Brandao edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control1:12

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 2Diego Brandao edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control2:34

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Joey Gambino edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control1:48

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 77

Sig Strikes

39 / 109

42.3%

Sig Str %

34.7%

84 / 133

Total Strikes

59 / 129

3 / 4

TDs

0 / 4

83.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:34

Ctrl Time

0:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joey Gambino	12 / 36	15 / 39	0 / 2	0
1	Diego Brandao	15 / 33	32 / 53	1 / 1	0
2	Joey Gambino	8 / 25	20 / 37	0 / 1	1
2	Diego Brandao	10 / 25	27 / 44	1 / 2	0
3	Joey Gambino	19 / 48	24 / 53	0 / 1	0
3	Diego Brandao	8 / 19	25 / 36	1 / 1	0

Diego Brandao

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights10

Joey Gambino

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach—

Fights2