← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Diego Brandao won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1490

Elo1355

Diego BrandaovsJimy HettesUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · Saturday, April 18, 2015Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Diego Brandao won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 5:00

Style matchupDiego Brandao: WrestlervsJimy Hettes: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jimy Hettes wins(66.7%)

Actual result: Diego Brandao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jimy Hettes at +120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Diego Brandao has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jimy Hettes (53.5%).
Jimy Hettes has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Diego Brandao

Red Corner

Jimy Hettes

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1490

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'9"

162.56 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego Brandao

oldest →

vs Daniel Pineda · Aug 13

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Dec 13

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 14

KOvs Katsunori Kikuno · Sep 15

SUBvs Brian Ortega · Jan 16

latest

Jimy Hettes

oldest →

SUBvs Alex Caceres · Aug 11

vs Nam Phan · Dec 11

vs Marcus Brimage · Sep 12

SUBvs Rob Whiteford · Oct 13

KOvs Dennis Bermudez · Mar 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego BrandaoMetricJimy Hettes

2.94

Strikes / min

3.47

3.38

Strikes absorbed / min

3.50

62%

Strike defense

57%

3.21

TDs / 15 min

5.20

80%

Takedown defense

61%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44evenly matched on net striking-0.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Diego BrandaoJimy Hettes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Diego Brandao(10 fights)Jimy Hettes(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +135.9|Blue -135.9

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -126.0|Blue +126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego BrandaoTargetJimy Hettes

By target zone

47% acc · 67%

Head

45% acc · 45%

75% acc · 25%

Body

86% acc · 55%

33% acc · 8%

Leg

By position

22% acc · 17%

Distance

57% acc · 36%

100% acc · 50%

Clinch

64% acc · 64%

44% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Diego Brandao rounds

even

Jimy Hettes rounds

Round 1Diego Brandao edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control2:24

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 24

Sig Strikes

11 / 18

50%

Sig Str %

61%

25 / 39

Total Strikes

17 / 24

2 / 3

TDs

1 / 3

66%

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

2:24

Ctrl Time

1:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jimy Hettes	11 / 18	17 / 24	1 / 3	0
1	Diego Brandao	12 / 24	25 / 39	2 / 3	0

Diego Brandao

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights10

Jimy Hettes

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6