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Featherweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Diego Brandao won · SUB R1
Elo1490
Diego Brandao
Elo1491

Diego BrandaovsDennis BermudezUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisping vs Team Miller Finale · Saturday, December 3, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Diego Brandao won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:51

Style matchupDiego Brandao: WrestlervsDennis Bermudez: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Diego Brandao wins(51.9%)

Actual result: Diego Brandao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Diego Brandao at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Diego Brandao
Red Corner
VS
Dennis Bermudez
Blue Corner
-320
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+290
(26%)
1490
Elo
1491
39
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'6"
162.56 cm
Reach
167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego Brandao
oldest →
L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Dec 13
L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 14
W
KOvs Jimy Hettes · Apr 15
W
KOvs Katsunori Kikuno · Sep 15
L
SUBvs Brian Ortega · Jan 16
latest
Dennis Bermudez
oldest →
L
KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Feb 17
L
vs Darren Elkins · Jul 17
L
vs Andre Fili · Jan 18
L
vs Rick Glenn · Jul 18
W
vs Te Edwards · Jan 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego BrandaoMetricDennis Bermudez
2.94
Strikes / min
4.42
3.38
Strikes absorbed / min
3.07
62%
Strike defense
59%
3.21
TDs / 15 min
3.89
80%
Takedown defense
82%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.44Δ 1.79 — meaningful gap+1.35
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Diego Brandao(10 fights)Dennis Bermudez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego BrandaoTargetDennis Bermudez

By target zone

10
37% acc · 53%
Head
22
29% acc · 88%
7
88% acc · 37%
Body
3
100% acc · 12%
2
50% acc · 11%
Leg
0

By position

15
45% acc · 79%
Distance
11
26% acc · 44%
2
50% acc · 11%
Clinch
4
50% acc · 16%
2
100% acc · 11%
Ground
10
37% acc · 40%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Diego Brandao rounds
0
even
1
Dennis Bermudez rounds
Round 1Dennis Bermudez edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns1
Control0:28
Knockdowns1
25Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
1
19 / 39
Sig Strikes
25 / 78
48%
Sig Str %
32%
23 / 43
Total Strikes
31 / 84
1 / 1
TDs
1 / 1
100%
TD %
100%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:28
Ctrl Time
1:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Dennis Bermudez25 / 7831 / 841 / 10
1Diego Brandao19 / 3923 / 431 / 11

Diego Brandao

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights10

Dennis Bermudez

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights17