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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Darren Elkins won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1499

Diego BrandaovsDarren ElkinsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir · Saturday, May 26, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Darren Elkins won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDiego Brandao: WrestlervsDarren Elkins: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Darren Elkins wins(59.4%)

Actual result: Darren Elkins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Darren Elkins at +240 American odds

+$240 profit

$340 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Diego Brandao has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Diego Brandao has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Darren Elkins has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Diego Brandao

Red Corner

Darren Elkins

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1490

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'10"

162.56 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego Brandao

oldest →

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Dec 13

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 14

KOvs Jimy Hettes · Apr 15

KOvs Katsunori Kikuno · Sep 15

SUBvs Brian Ortega · Jan 16

latest

Darren Elkins

oldest →

vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22

vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22

SUBvs TJ Brown · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24

KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego BrandaoMetricDarren Elkins

2.94

Strikes / min

3.40

3.38

Strikes absorbed / min

3.34

62%

Strike defense

51%

3.21

TDs / 15 min

2.87

80%

Takedown defense

56%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44evenly matched on net striking+0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Diego BrandaoDarren Elkins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Diego Brandao(10 fights)Darren Elkins(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -9.0|Blue +9.0

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego BrandaoTargetDarren Elkins

By target zone

45% acc · 87%

Head

35% acc · 75%

100% acc · 9%

Body

82% acc · 25%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

By position

39% acc · 39%

Distance

25% acc · 39%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

0% acc

57% acc · 57%

Ground

73% acc · 61%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Diego Brandao rounds

even

Darren Elkins rounds

Round 1Diego Brandao edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control3:13

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:56Control

Round 3Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:56

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:27Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 47

Sig Strikes

36 / 88

44.3%

Sig Str %

39.7%

46 / 79

Total Strikes

115 / 187

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 6

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

4:09

Ctrl Time

6:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Darren Elkins	4 / 14	12 / 25	0 / 4	0
1	Diego Brandao	17 / 32	30 / 47	0 / 0	0
2	Darren Elkins	15 / 45	52 / 91	0 / 0	0
2	Diego Brandao	4 / 10	8 / 16	0 / 0	0
3	Darren Elkins	17 / 29	51 / 71	1 / 2	1
3	Diego Brandao	2 / 5	8 / 16	0 / 0	0

Diego Brandao

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights10

Darren Elkins

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights30