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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Diego Brandao won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1489

Diego BrandaovsDaniel PinedaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen · Saturday, August 17, 2013Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Diego Brandao won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDiego Brandao: WrestlervsDaniel Pineda: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Diego Brandao wins(69.2%)

Actual result: Diego Brandao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Diego Brandao at -178 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Pineda enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Diego Brandao has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Diego Brandao has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Daniel Pineda has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Diego Brandao

Red Corner

Daniel Pineda

Blue Corner

-178

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+167

(37%)

1490

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

162.56 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego Brandao

oldest →

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Dec 13

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 14

KOvs Jimy Hettes · Apr 15

KOvs Katsunori Kikuno · Sep 15

SUBvs Brian Ortega · Jan 16

latest

Daniel PinedaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 20

SUBvs Tucker Lutz · Mar 23

vs Alex Caceres · Jun 23

vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 24

vs Darren Elkins · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego BrandaoMetricDaniel Pineda

2.94

Strikes / min

2.85

3.38

Strikes absorbed / min

3.26

62%

Strike defense

45%

3.21

TDs / 15 min

1.42

80%

Takedown defense

54%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44evenly matched on net striking-0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Diego BrandaoDaniel Pineda

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Diego Brandao(10 fights)Daniel Pineda(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego BrandaoTargetDaniel Pineda

By target zone

47% acc · 74%

Head

33% acc · 77%

53% acc · 21%

Body

71% acc · 20%

67% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

49% acc · 83%

Distance

28% acc · 54%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

46% acc · 14%

Ground

62% acc · 39%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Diego Brandao rounds

even

Daniel Pineda rounds

Round 1Diego Brandao edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns1

Control0:29

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Daniel Pineda edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns2

Control1:39

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:26Control

Round 3Diego Brandao edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns5

Control2:17

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 86

Sig Strikes

61 / 160

44.7%

Sig Str %

39%

64 / 108

Total Strikes

88 / 195

8 / 10

TDs

0 / 8

77.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:25

Ctrl Time

2:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Daniel Pineda	18 / 69	18 / 69	0 / 4
1	Diego Brandao	28 / 49	28 / 49	1 / 2
2	Daniel Pineda	28 / 55	54 / 87	0 / 0
2	Diego Brandao	4 / 10	16 / 22	2 / 2
3	Daniel Pineda	15 / 36	16 / 39	0 / 4
3	Diego Brandao	10 / 27	20 / 37	5 / 6

Diego Brandao

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights10

Daniel Pineda

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13