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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Brian Ortega won · SUB R3

Elo1490

Elo1489

Diego BrandaovsBrian OrtegaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · Saturday, January 2, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brian Ortega won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:37

Model Prediction: Brian Ortega wins(65.7%)

Actual result: Brian Ortega wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brian Ortega at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Diego Brandao has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Diego Brandao has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ortega (52.9%).
Brian Ortega has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Diego Brandao

Red Corner

Brian Ortega

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1490

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'7"

Height

5'8"

162.56 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego BrandaoW2 streak

oldest →

vs Daniel Pineda · Aug 13

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Dec 13

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 14

KOvs Jimy Hettes · Apr 15

KOvs Katsunori Kikuno · Sep 15

latest

Brian OrtegaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Sep 21

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 22

SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 24

vs Diego Lopes · Sep 24

vs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego BrandaoMetricBrian Ortega

2.94

Strikes / min

3.84

3.38

Strikes absorbed / min

6.38

62%

Strike defense

49%

3.21

TDs / 15 min

0.93

80%

Takedown defense

54%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44Δ 2.10 — meaningful gap-2.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Diego BrandaoBrian Ortega

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Diego Brandao(10 fights)Brian Ortega(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego BrandaoTargetBrian Ortega

By target zone

44% acc · 68%

Head

20% acc · 62%

91% acc · 18%

Body

58% acc · 38%

80% acc · 14%

Leg

By position

52% acc · 91%

Distance

26% acc · 97%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

56% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Diego Brandao rounds

even

Brian Ortega rounds

Round 1Diego Brandao edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns2

Control0:01

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:05Control

Round 2Diego Brandao edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Diego Brandao edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:19

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:36Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

56 / 108

Sig Strikes

29 / 110

54.3%

Sig Str %

26.3%

61 / 116

Total Strikes

33 / 114

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:20

Ctrl Time

1:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brian Ortega	11 / 42	14 / 45	0 / 0	0
1	Diego Brandao	25 / 48	28 / 52	2 / 2	0
2	Brian Ortega	15 / 57	15 / 57	0 / 0	0
2	Diego Brandao	22 / 46	22 / 46	0 / 1	0
3	Brian Ortega	3 / 11	4 / 12	0 / 1	2
3	Diego Brandao	9 / 14	11 / 18	0 / 0	0

Diego Brandao

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights10

Brian Ortega

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13