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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Diana Belbita won · U-DEC R3

Elo1485

Elo1463

Diana BelbitavsMaria OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · Saturday, June 10, 2023Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Diana Belbita won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDiana Belbita: Pressure fightervsMaria Oliveira: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Diana Belbita wins(58.3%)

Actual result: Diana Belbita wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Diana Belbita at -146 American odds

+$68 profit

$168 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Diana Belbita enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Diana Belbita has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Diana Belbita

Red Corner

Maria Oliveira

Blue Corner

-146

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+114

(47%)

1485

Elo

1463

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diana BelbitaL4 streak

oldest →

vs Hannah Goldy · Jul 21

vs Gloria de Paula · Feb 22

vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Oct 23

SUBvs Molly McCann · Feb 24

SUBvs Dione Barbosa · Apr 25

latest

Maria Oliveira

oldest →

vs Tabatha Ricci · Oct 21

vs Gloria de Paula · Jun 22

vs Vanessa Demopoulos · Nov 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diana BelbitaMetricMaria Oliveira

6.45

Strikes / min

5.03

6.55

Strikes absorbed / min

5.76

51%

Strike defense

44%

0.86

TDs / 15 min

0.95

64%

Takedown defense

47%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.10evenly matched on net striking-0.73

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Diana BelbitaMaria Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Diana Belbita(8 fights)Maria Oliveira(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +22.5|Blue -22.5

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +273.0|Blue -273.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diana BelbitaTargetMaria Oliveira

By target zone

43% acc · 67%

Head

32% acc · 70%

80% acc · 19%

Body

61% acc · 17%

83% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

43% acc · 72%

Distance

37% acc · 97%

92% acc · 21%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

100% acc · 8%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Diana Belbita rounds

even

Maria Oliveira rounds

Round 1Diana Belbita edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control0:22

28Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:20Control

Round 2Diana Belbita edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control1:29

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:37Control

Round 3Diana Belbita edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:13

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

106 / 208

Sig Strikes

64 / 168

52%

Sig Str %

39%

154 / 258

Total Strikes

85 / 200

1 / 2

TDs

2 / 5

50%

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

2:04

Ctrl Time

4:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Maria Oliveira	28 / 66	36 / 79	1 / 1
1	Diana Belbita	41 / 84	60 / 104	0 / 0
2	Maria Oliveira	7 / 17	19 / 35	1 / 1
2	Diana Belbita	22 / 37	49 / 65	1 / 2
3	Maria Oliveira	29 / 85	30 / 86	0 / 3
3	Diana Belbita	43 / 87	45 / 89	0 / 0

Diana Belbita

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights8

Maria Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4