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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Gloria de Paula won · U-DEC R3

Elo1485

Elo1494

Diana BelbitavsGloria de PaulaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · Saturday, February 19, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gloria de Paula won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDiana Belbita: Pressure fightervsGloria de Paula: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Diana Belbita wins(62.4%)

Actual result: Gloria de Paula wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Diana Belbita at -125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Diana Belbita enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Gloria de Paula enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Gloria de Paula has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Diana Belbita

Red Corner

Gloria de Paula

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1485

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'5"

172.72 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diana BelbitaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Hannah Goldy · Jul 21

vs Maria Oliveira · Jun 23

vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Oct 23

SUBvs Molly McCann · Feb 24

SUBvs Dione Barbosa · Apr 25

latest

Gloria de PaulaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jinh Yu Frey · Mar 21

KOvs Cheyanne Buys · Jul 21

vs Maria Oliveira · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diana BelbitaMetricGloria de Paula

6.45

Strikes / min

4.89

6.55

Strikes absorbed / min

3.77

51%

Strike defense

66%

0.86

TDs / 15 min

0.74

64%

Takedown defense

65%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.10Δ 1.22 — meaningful gap+1.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Diana BelbitaGloria de Paula

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Diana Belbita(8 fights)Gloria de Paula(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.9|Blue +8.9

Recent Form

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diana BelbitaTargetGloria de Paula

By target zone

22% acc · 49%

Head

45% acc · 80%

80% acc · 32%

Body

94% acc · 19%

94% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 1%

By position

32% acc · 91%

Distance

46% acc · 81%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

89% acc · 19%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Diana Belbita rounds

even

Gloria de Paula rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:03

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:19Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:08

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:59Control

Round 3Gloria de Paula edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:33

30Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

87 / 252

Sig Strikes

88 / 175

34.7%

Sig Str %

50%

124 / 295

Total Strikes

113 / 201

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 5

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:44

Ctrl Time

5:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gloria de Paula	27 / 61	32 / 66	0 / 2
1	Diana Belbita	28 / 96	35 / 105	0 / 0
2	Gloria de Paula	31 / 61	39 / 69	0 / 0
2	Diana Belbita	33 / 88	47 / 103	0 / 1
3	Gloria de Paula	30 / 53	42 / 66	1 / 3
3	Diana Belbita	26 / 68	42 / 87	0 / 0

Diana Belbita

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights8

Gloria de Paula

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4