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Women's Flyweight
3 Rounds
Dione Barbosa won · SUB R1
Elo1485
Diana Belbita
Elo1542
Dione Barbosa editorial illustration

Diana BelbitavsDione BarbosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · Saturday, April 5, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dione Barbosa won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:13

Style matchupDiana Belbita: Pressure fightervsDione Barbosa: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Dione Barbosa wins(67.4%)

Actual result: Dione Barbosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dione Barbosa at -1150 American odds

+$9 profit

$109 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Dione Barbosa threatens submissions; Diana Belbita has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Dione Barbosa has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Diana Belbita
Red Corner
VS
Dione Barbosa
Blue Corner
+730
(12%)
Vegas Odds
-1150
(92%)
1485
Elo
1542
30
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'6"
172.72 cm
Reach
167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diana BelbitaL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Hannah Goldy · Jul 21
L
vs Gloria de Paula · Feb 22
W
vs Maria Oliveira · Jun 23
L
vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Oct 23
L
SUBvs Molly McCann · Feb 24
latest
Dione BarbosaW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Ernesta Kareckaite · May 24
L
vs Miranda Maverick · Jul 24
L
vs Karine Silva · Aug 25
W
DECvs Melissa Gatto · Apr 26
W
SUBvs Anna Melisano · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diana BelbitaMetricDione Barbosa
6.45
Strikes / min
2.21
6.55
Strikes absorbed / min
2.40
51%
Strike defense
64%
0.86
TDs / 15 min
2.40
64%
Takedown defense
63%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.10evenly matched on net striking-0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1457 vs 1501Strikes6.5 vs 2.3Takedowns0.9 vs 2.2Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.90Form-0.5 vs -0.1
Diana BelbitaDione Barbosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701493151515381560← oldermost recent →
Diana Belbita(8 fights)Dione Barbosa(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -56.6|Blue +56.6
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red +168.0|Blue -168.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diana BelbitaTargetDione Barbosa

By target zone

6
14% acc · 30%
Head
23
50% acc · 85%
6
35% acc · 30%
Body
2
100% acc · 7%
8
89% acc · 40%
Leg
2
100% acc · 7%

By position

20
29% acc · 100%
Distance
25
52% acc · 93%
0
Clinch
2
100% acc · 7%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Diana Belbita rounds
0
even
1
Dione Barbosa rounds
Round 1Dione Barbosa edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
27Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:58Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
20 / 69
Sig Strikes
27 / 50
28%
Sig Str %
54%
23 / 72
Total Strikes
35 / 58
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:58

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Dione Barbosa27 / 5035 / 581 / 11
1Diana Belbita20 / 6923 / 720 / 00

Diana Belbita

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights8

Dione Barbosa

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights7