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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Tim Means won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1403

Elo1492

Dhiego LimavsTim MeansUFC Prediction Result

UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · Saturday, February 28, 2015Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Tim Means won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:17

Style matchupDhiego Lima: Well-roundedvsTim Means: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Dhiego Lima wins(52.0%)

Actual result: Tim Means wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dhiego Lima at +150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Dhiego Lima

Red Corner

Tim Means

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1403

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dhiego LimaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chad Laprise · Dec 18

vs Court McGee · Apr 19

vs Luke Jumeau · Oct 19

vs Belal Muhammad · Feb 21

KOvs Matt Brown · Jun 21

latest

Tim MeansL2 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Oct 22

SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23

KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24

SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dhiego LimaMetricTim Means

3.12

Strikes / min

5.04

3.88

Strikes absorbed / min

3.65

58%

Strike defense

60%

1.26

TDs / 15 min

1.14

73%

Takedown defense

64%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.76Δ 2.15 — meaningful gap+1.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dhiego LimaTim Means

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dhiego Lima(10 fights)Tim Means(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -89.1|Blue +89.1

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -2.7|Blue +2.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dhiego LimaTargetTim Means

By target zone

30% acc · 86%

Head

52% acc · 70%

0% acc

Body

56% acc · 22%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

21% acc · 57%

Distance

39% acc · 48%

60% acc · 43%

Clinch

91% acc · 43%

Ground

67% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dhiego Lima rounds

even

Tim Means rounds

Round 1Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns0

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 24

Sig Strikes

23 / 42

29%

Sig Str %

54%

7 / 24

Total Strikes

25 / 47

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tim Means	23 / 42	25 / 47	0 / 0	0
1	Dhiego Lima	7 / 24	7 / 24	0 / 1	0

Dhiego Lima

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Tim Means

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights29