Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Clayton Carpenter enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Clayton Carpenter threatens submissions; Juancamilo Ronderos has lost 100% of fights by sub.
- Juancamilo Ronderos has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Clayton Carpenter has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Juancamilo Ronderos (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Clayton CarpenterL3 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Lucas Rocha · Oct 24L
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Jan 25L
SUBvs Jafel Filho · Oct 25L
DECvs Jose Ochoa · May 26 Juancamilo Ronderos
oldest →L
SUBvs David Dvorak · May 21 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Clayton CarpenterMetricJuancamilo Ronderos
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.59evenly matched on net striking0.00
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Clayton CarpenterJuancamilo Ronderos
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Clayton Carpenter(5 fights)Juancamilo Ronderos(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +7.7|Blue -7.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +49.6|Blue -49.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Clayton CarpenterTargetJuancamilo Ronderos
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
0
Clayton Carpenter rounds
0
Juancamilo Ronderos rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control1:19
1Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:22Control
