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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Steve Garcia won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1534

Elo1487

Steve GarciavsSeungWoo ChoiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · Saturday, July 20, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Steve Garcia won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:36

Style matchupSteve Garcia: Elusive strikervsSeungWoo Choi: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Steve Garcia wins(76.7%)

Actual result: Steve Garcia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Steve Garcia at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Steve Garcia is a KO finisher (88% of wins). SeungWoo Choi has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Steve Garcia has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Steve Garcia has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Steve Garcia (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Steve Garcia

Red Corner

SeungWoo Choi

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1534

Elo

1487

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Steve Garcia

oldest →

KOvs Melquizael Costa · Dec 23

KOvs Kyle Nelson · Sep 24

vs Calvin Kattar · Jul 25

KOvs David Onama · Nov 25

KOvs Diego Lopes · Jun 26

latest

SeungWoo Choi

oldest →

SUBvs Alex Caceres · Oct 21

vs Josh Culibao · Jun 22

KOvs Michael Trizano · Nov 22

vs Jarno Errens · Aug 23

KOvs Kevin Vallejos · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Steve GarciaMetricSeungWoo Choi

5.39

Strikes / min

3.56

2.12

Strikes absorbed / min

3.16

59%

Strike defense

47%

0.86

TDs / 15 min

0.83

88%

Takedown defense

70%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+3.27Δ 2.87 — meaningful gap+0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Steve GarciaSeungWoo Choi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Steve Garcia(10 fights)SeungWoo Choi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +46.6|Blue -46.6

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Steve GarciaTargetSeungWoo Choi

By target zone

53% acc · 67%

Head

54% acc · 78%

40% acc · 13%

Body

100% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 22%

By position

47% acc · 60%

Distance

60% acc · 100%

50% acc · 7%

Clinch

83% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Steve Garcia rounds

even

SeungWoo Choi rounds

Round 1Steve Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:37

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 27

Sig Strikes

9 / 15

55%

Sig Str %

60%

18 / 34

Total Strikes

9 / 16

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:37

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	SeungWoo Choi	9 / 15	9 / 16	0 / 0	0
1	Steve Garcia	15 / 27	18 / 34	0 / 1	0

Steve Garcia

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10

SeungWoo Choi

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8