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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Devonte Smith won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1419

Elo1495

Devonte SmithvsJulian ErosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, November 10, 2018Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Devonte Smith won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:46

Style matchupDevonte Smith: Pressure fightervsJulian Erosa: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Julian Erosa wins(64.7%)

Actual result: Devonte Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Julian Erosa at +210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Devonte Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Devonte Smith is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Julian Erosa has lost 78% of fights by KO.
Devonte Smith has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Julian Erosa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Devonte Smith

Red Corner

Julian Erosa

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1419

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Devonte SmithL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dong Hyun Ma · Feb 19

KOvs Khama Worthy · Aug 19

KOvs Jamie Mullarkey · Oct 21

vs Ludovit Klein · Mar 22

latest

Julian ErosaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 24

SUBvs Christian Rodriguez · Jul 24

KOvs Darren Elkins · Apr 25

vs Melquizael Costa · May 25

KOvs Lerryan Douglas · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Devonte SmithMetricJulian Erosa

4.55

Strikes / min

6.18

3.91

Strikes absorbed / min

6.31

49%

Strike defense

48%

0.35

TDs / 15 min

1.73

85%

Takedown defense

61%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.64evenly matched on net striking-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Devonte SmithJulian Erosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Devonte Smith(5 fights)Julian Erosa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -75.8|Blue +75.8

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +48.0|Blue -48.0

Grappler Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Devonte SmithTargetJulian Erosa

By target zone

60% acc · 69%

Head

25% acc · 25%

100% acc · 15%

Body

100% acc · 25%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

69% acc · 69%

Distance

57% acc · 100%

Clinch

67% acc · 31%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Devonte Smith rounds

even

Julian Erosa rounds

Round 1Devonte Smith edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 19

Sig Strikes

4 / 7

68%

Sig Str %

57%

13 / 19

Total Strikes

4 / 7

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Julian Erosa	4 / 7	4 / 7	0 / 0	0
1	Devonte Smith	13 / 19	13 / 19	0 / 0	0

Devonte Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights5

Julian Erosa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18