Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jamie Mullarkey won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1419

Elo1490

Devonte SmithvsJamie MullarkeyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Saturday, October 2, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jamie Mullarkey won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:51

Style matchupDevonte Smith: Pressure fightervsJamie Mullarkey: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Jamie Mullarkey wins(64.8%)

Actual result: Jamie Mullarkey wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jamie Mullarkey at +135 American odds

+$135 profit

$235 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Devonte Smith is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Jamie Mullarkey has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Devonte Smith has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Devonte Smith

Red Corner

Jamie Mullarkey

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1419

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'0"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Devonte SmithL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Julian Erosa · Nov 18

KOvs Dong Hyun Ma · Feb 19

KOvs Khama Worthy · Aug 19

vs Ludovit Klein · Mar 22

latest

Jamie Mullarkey

oldest →

vs John Makdessi · Sep 23

KOvs Nasrat Haqparast · Dec 23

KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · May 24

vs Rolando Bedoya · Sep 25

SUBvs Quillan Salkilld · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Devonte SmithMetricJamie Mullarkey

4.55

Strikes / min

4.10

3.91

Strikes absorbed / min

4.28

49%

Strike defense

54%

0.35

TDs / 15 min

2.46

85%

Takedown defense

70%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.64evenly matched on net striking-0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Devonte SmithJamie Mullarkey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Devonte Smith(5 fights)Jamie Mullarkey(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -71.1|Blue +71.1

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red +588.0|Blue -588.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Devonte SmithTargetJamie Mullarkey

By target zone

42% acc · 83%

Head

34% acc · 40%

50% acc · 7%

Body

69% acc · 40%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

44% acc · 90%

Distance

45% acc · 62%

60% acc · 10%

Clinch

68% acc · 27%

Ground

55% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Devonte Smith rounds

even

Jamie Mullarkey rounds

Round 1Jamie Mullarkey edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 2Jamie Mullarkey edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 64

Sig Strikes

55 / 108

45%

Sig Str %

49.5%

32 / 67

Total Strikes

58 / 112

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jamie Mullarkey	21 / 46	23 / 49	1 / 2
1	Devonte Smith	22 / 49	25 / 52	0 / 0
2	Jamie Mullarkey	34 / 62	35 / 63	0 / 0
2	Devonte Smith	7 / 15	7 / 15	0 / 0

Devonte Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights5

Jamie Mullarkey

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights13