Lightweight

3 Rounds

Devonte Smith won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1419

Elo1379

Devonte SmithvsDong Hyun MaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva · Saturday, February 9, 2019Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Devonte Smith won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:53

Model Prediction: Devonte Smith wins(52.0%)

Actual result: Devonte Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Devonte Smith at -270 American odds

+$37 profit

$137 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Devonte Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Devonte Smith is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Dong Hyun Ma has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Devonte Smith has 52pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Devonte Smith has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Devonte Smith

Red Corner

Dong Hyun Ma

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+230

(30%)

1419

Elo

1379

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Devonte SmithL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Julian Erosa · Nov 18

KOvs Khama Worthy · Aug 19

KOvs Jamie Mullarkey · Oct 21

vs Ludovit Klein · Mar 22

latest

Dong Hyun MaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Brendan O'Reilly · Dec 16

KOvs Takanori Gomi · Sep 17

vs Damien Brown · Feb 18

KOvs Scott Holtzman · Aug 19

DECvs Omar Antonio Morales Ferrer · Dec 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Devonte SmithMetricDong Hyun Ma

4.55

Strikes / min

2.84

3.91

Strikes absorbed / min

4.10

49%

Strike defense

54%

0.35

TDs / 15 min

1.27

85%

Takedown defense

33%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.64Δ 1.90 — meaningful gap-1.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Devonte SmithDong Hyun Ma

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Devonte Smith(5 fights)Dong Hyun Ma(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +39.9|Blue -39.9

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.9|Blue +1.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -273.0|Blue +273.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Devonte SmithTargetDong Hyun Ma

By target zone

41% acc · 74%

Head

0% acc

25% acc · 5%

Body

0% acc

80% acc · 21%

Leg

25% acc · 100%

By position

39% acc · 79%

Distance

11% acc · 100%

Clinch

80% acc · 21%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Devonte Smith rounds

even

Dong Hyun Ma rounds

Round 1Devonte Smith edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 43

Sig Strikes

1 / 9

44%

Sig Str %

11%

19 / 43

Total Strikes

1 / 9

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dong Hyun Ma	1 / 9	1 / 9	0 / 0	0
1	Devonte Smith	19 / 43	19 / 43	0 / 0	0

Devonte Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights5

Dong Hyun Ma

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights8