Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Devin Clark won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1496

Elo1451

Devin ClarkvsWilliam KnightUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad · Saturday, April 16, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Devin Clark won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:21

Model Prediction: William Knight wins(51.3%)

Actual result: Devin Clark wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

William Knight at +160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Devin Clark

Red Corner

William Knight

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1496

Elo

1451

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Devin ClarkL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ion Cutelaba · Sep 21

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Aug 22

vs Da Woon Jung · Feb 23

SUBvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · May 23

vs Marcin Prachnio · Feb 24

latest

William KnightL2 streak

oldest →

vs Da-Un Jung · Apr 21

KOvs Fabio Cherant · Aug 21

vs Alonzo Menifield · Dec 21

vs Maxim Grishin · Feb 22

vs Marcin Prachnio · Feb 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Devin ClarkMetricWilliam Knight

3.03

Strikes / min

2.62

3.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.30

44%

Strike defense

35%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

1.78

58%

Takedown defense

48%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.21evenly matched on net striking-0.68

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Devin ClarkWilliam Knight

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Devin Clark(10 fights)William Knight(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +44.5|Blue -44.5

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +147.0|Blue -147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Devin ClarkTargetWilliam Knight

By target zone

63% acc · 56%

Head

38% acc · 52%

83% acc · 15%

Body

100% acc · 14%

91% acc · 29%

Leg

78% acc · 33%

By position

68% acc · 74%

Distance

46% acc · 76%

80% acc · 12%

Clinch

83% acc · 24%

100% acc · 15%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Devin Clark rounds

even

William Knight rounds

Round 1William Knight edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control1:14

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:03Control

Round 2Devin Clark edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control3:13

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 3Devin Clark edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control1:19

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 47

Sig Strikes

21 / 41

65%

Sig Str %

52%

125 / 140

Total Strikes

39 / 59

2 / 5

TDs

1 / 1

66.7%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

5:46

Ctrl Time

2:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	William Knight	10 / 18	19 / 27	0 / 0	2
1	Devin Clark	3 / 9	33 / 39	0 / 3	0
2	William Knight	6 / 9	8 / 11	1 / 1	0
2	Devin Clark	12 / 15	63 / 68	1 / 1	0
3	William Knight	5 / 14	12 / 21	0 / 0	0
3	Devin Clark	19 / 23	29 / 33	1 / 1	0

Devin Clark

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17

William Knight

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7