Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Marcin Prachnio won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1489

Devin ClarkvsMarcin PrachnioUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Saturday, February 10, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marcin Prachnio won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDevin Clark: WrestlervsMarcin Prachnio: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Marcin Prachnio wins(54.1%)

Actual result: Marcin Prachnio wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marcin Prachnio enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Marcin Prachnio has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Devin Clark

Red Corner

Marcin Prachnio

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1496

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Devin Clark

oldest →

vs Ion Cutelaba · Sep 21

KOvs William Knight · Apr 22

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Aug 22

vs Da Woon Jung · Feb 23

SUBvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · May 23

latest

Marcin PrachnioL3 streak

oldest →

vs Philipe Lins · Apr 22

vs William Knight · Feb 23

SUBvs Vitor Petrino · Jul 23

SUBvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jul 24

SUBvs Jimmy Crute · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Devin ClarkMetricMarcin Prachnio

3.03

Strikes / min

5.52

3.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.15

44%

Strike defense

54%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

0.14

58%

Takedown defense

53%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.21Δ 2.58 — meaningful gap+2.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Devin ClarkMarcin Prachnio

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Devin Clark(10 fights)Marcin Prachnio(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Devin ClarkTargetMarcin Prachnio

By target zone

34% acc · 68%

Head

37% acc · 42%

81% acc · 25%

Body

73% acc · 37%

80% acc · 8%

Leg

88% acc · 22%

By position

41% acc · 92%

Distance

50% acc · 77%

57% acc · 8%

Clinch

70% acc · 23%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Devin Clark rounds

even

Marcin Prachnio rounds

Round 1Marcin Prachnio edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:14

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Marcin Prachnio edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 3Marcin Prachnio edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

48Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 127

Sig Strikes

101 / 189

42%

Sig Str %

52%

53 / 127

Total Strikes

112 / 204

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

0:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marcin Prachnio	23 / 47	27 / 53	0 / 0
1	Devin Clark	11 / 29	11 / 29	0 / 1
2	Marcin Prachnio	30 / 60	32 / 62	0 / 0
2	Devin Clark	19 / 36	19 / 36	0 / 1
3	Marcin Prachnio	48 / 82	53 / 89	1 / 1
3	Devin Clark	23 / 62	23 / 62	0 / 0

Devin Clark

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17

Marcin Prachnio

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11