← All fights/Event page

Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Devin Clark won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1474

Devin ClarkvsJake CollierUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · Saturday, April 15, 2017Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Devin Clark won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDevin Clark: WrestlervsJake Collier: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Jake Collier wins(52.8%)

Actual result: Devin Clark wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jake Collier at +120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Collier enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Devin Clark

Red Corner

Jake Collier

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1496

Elo

1474

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Devin ClarkL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs William Knight · Apr 22

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Aug 22

vs Da Woon Jung · Feb 23

SUBvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · May 23

vs Marcin Prachnio · Feb 24

latest

Jake CollierL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Chase Sherman · Jan 22

vs Andrei Arlovski · Apr 22

KOvs Chris Barnett · Sep 22

vs Martin Buday · Apr 23

vs Mohammed Usman · Sep 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Devin ClarkMetricJake Collier

3.03

Strikes / min

5.80

3.24

Strikes absorbed / min

5.08

44%

Strike defense

50%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

0.71

58%

Takedown defense

67%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.21evenly matched on net striking+0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Devin ClarkJake Collier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Devin Clark(10 fights)Jake Collier(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +22.1|Blue -22.1

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -188.0|Blue +188.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Devin ClarkTargetJake Collier

By target zone

55% acc · 62%

Head

35% acc · 47%

89% acc · 25%

Body

73% acc · 31%

90% acc · 13%

Leg

89% acc · 22%

By position

40% acc · 29%

Distance

35% acc · 42%

73% acc · 16%

Clinch

71% acc · 56%

93% acc · 54%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Devin Clark rounds

even

Jake Collier rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control2:05

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:26Control

Round 2Devin Clark edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control1:15

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:39Control

Round 3Devin Clark edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns2

Control4:25

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

68 / 105

Sig Strikes

36 / 72

63.7%

Sig Str %

46.7%

159 / 207

Total Strikes

52 / 91

4 / 7

TDs

0 / 2

75%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:45

Ctrl Time

2:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jake Collier	22 / 36	29 / 44	0 / 1	0
1	Devin Clark	16 / 27	44 / 58	1 / 1	0
2	Jake Collier	11 / 29	15 / 35	0 / 0	0
2	Devin Clark	19 / 38	35 / 55	1 / 4	0
3	Jake Collier	3 / 7	8 / 12	0 / 1	1
3	Devin Clark	33 / 40	80 / 94	2 / 2	0

Devin Clark

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17

Jake Collier

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights14