Middleweight

3 Rounds

Alex Nicholson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1496

Elo1360

Devin ClarkvsAlex NicholsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · Wednesday, July 13, 2016Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA

Official fight result

Alex Nicholson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:57

Style matchupDevin Clark: WrestlervsAlex Nicholson: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Alex Nicholson wins(60.6%)

Actual result: Alex Nicholson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Nicholson at +180 American odds

+$180 profit

$280 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Nicholson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Devin Clark

Red Corner

Alex Nicholson

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1496

Elo

1360

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'4"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Devin ClarkL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs William Knight · Apr 22

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Aug 22

vs Da Woon Jung · Feb 23

SUBvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · May 23

vs Marcin Prachnio · Feb 24

latest

Alex NicholsonL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Misha Cirkunov · Feb 16

vs Sam Alvey · Nov 16

KOvs Jack Hermansson · May 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Devin ClarkMetricAlex Nicholson

3.03

Strikes / min

4.12

3.24

Strikes absorbed / min

4.65

44%

Strike defense

47%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

0.00

58%

Takedown defense

50%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.21evenly matched on net striking-0.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Devin ClarkAlex Nicholson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Devin Clark(10 fights)Alex Nicholson(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +135.4|Blue -135.4

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Devin ClarkTargetAlex Nicholson

By target zone

54% acc · 50%

Head

33% acc · 33%

100% acc · 50%

Body

100% acc · 28%

Leg

88% acc · 39%

By position

67% acc · 57%

Distance

50% acc · 67%

75% acc · 21%

Clinch

75% acc · 17%

75% acc · 21%

Ground

100% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Devin Clark rounds

even

Alex Nicholson rounds

Round 1Devin Clark edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control2:46

Knockdowns1

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 20

Sig Strikes

18 / 31

70%

Sig Str %

58%

30 / 37

Total Strikes

20 / 33

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:46

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Nicholson	18 / 31	20 / 33	0 / 0	0
1	Devin Clark	14 / 20	30 / 37	1 / 1	1

Devin Clark

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17

Alex Nicholson

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights4