← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Desmond Green won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1366

Desmond GreenvsGleison TibauUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · Friday, June 1, 2018Utica, New York, USA

Official fight result

Desmond Green won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDesmond Green: Elusive strikervsGleison Tibau: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Desmond Green wins(60.1%)

Actual result: Desmond Green wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Desmond Green at -1200 American odds

+$8 profit

$108 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gleison Tibau enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Gleison Tibau has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Desmond Green

Red Corner

Gleison Tibau

Blue Corner

-1200

(92%)

Vegas Odds

+600

(14%)

1492

Elo

1366

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Desmond GreenW2 streak

oldest →

vs Rustam Khabilov · Sep 17

vs Michel Prazeres · Feb 18

vs Mairbek Taisumov · Sep 18

KOvs Ross Pearson · Mar 19

vs Charles Jourdain · May 19

latest

Gleison TibauL3 streak

oldest →

vs Piotr Hallmann · Sep 14

vs Norman Parke · Jan 15

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Feb 15

vs Abel Trujillo · Nov 15

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Desmond GreenMetricGleison Tibau

3.70

Strikes / min

1.95

2.51

Strikes absorbed / min

2.51

69%

Strike defense

63%

1.62

TDs / 15 min

4.08

75%

Takedown defense

92%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.19Δ 1.75 — meaningful gap-0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Desmond GreenGleison Tibau

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Desmond Green(7 fights)Gleison Tibau(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +126.0|Blue -126.0

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Desmond GreenTargetGleison Tibau

By target zone

38% acc · 79%

Head

13% acc · 71%

48% acc · 17%

Body

35% acc · 21%

75% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

40% acc · 97%

Distance

16% acc · 100%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Desmond Green rounds

even

Gleison Tibau rounds

Round 1Desmond Green edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Desmond Green edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Desmond Green edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

77 / 191

Sig Strikes

28 / 178

39.3%

Sig Str %

15.7%

77 / 191

Total Strikes

29 / 179

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gleison Tibau	10 / 52	11 / 53	0 / 2
1	Desmond Green	28 / 67	28 / 67	0 / 0
2	Gleison Tibau	4 / 65	4 / 65	0 / 0
2	Desmond Green	18 / 52	18 / 52	0 / 0
3	Gleison Tibau	14 / 61	14 / 61	0 / 1
3	Desmond Green	31 / 72	31 / 72	0 / 0

Desmond Green

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Gleison Tibau

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18