Lightweight

3 Rounds

Desmond Green won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1529

Desmond GreenvsCharles JourdainUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · Saturday, May 18, 2019Rochester, New York, USA

Official fight result

Desmond Green won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDesmond Green: Elusive strikervsCharles Jourdain: Pressure fighter

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Desmond Green wins(71.6%)

Actual result: Desmond Green wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Desmond Green at -900 American odds

+$11 profit

$111 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Jourdain enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Desmond Green has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Desmond Green has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Charles Jourdain (54.1%).
Desmond Green has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Desmond Green

Red Corner

Charles Jourdain

Blue Corner

-900

(90%)

Vegas Odds

+600

(14%)

1492

Elo

1529

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'10"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Desmond Green

oldest →

vs Rustam Khabilov · Sep 17

vs Michel Prazeres · Feb 18

vs Gleison Tibau · Jun 18

vs Mairbek Taisumov · Sep 18

KOvs Ross Pearson · Mar 19

latest

Charles JourdainW3 streak

oldest →

vs Sean Woodson · Jan 24

KOvs Jean Silva · Jun 24

SUBvs Victor Henry · Nov 24

SUBvs Davey Grant · Oct 25

DECvs Kyler Phillips · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Desmond GreenMetricCharles Jourdain

3.70

Strikes / min

5.36

2.51

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

69%

Strike defense

56%

1.62

TDs / 15 min

0.38

75%

Takedown defense

46%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.19evenly matched on net striking+1.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Desmond GreenCharles Jourdain

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Desmond Green(7 fights)Charles Jourdain(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -37.7|Blue +37.7

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -47.3|Blue +47.3

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Desmond GreenTargetCharles Jourdain

By target zone

47% acc · 72%

Head

14% acc · 20%

88% acc · 19%

Body

48% acc · 25%

88% acc · 9%

Leg

79% acc · 55%

By position

50% acc · 78%

Distance

38% acc · 98%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

33% acc · 2%

71% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Desmond Green rounds

even

Charles Jourdain rounds

Round 1Desmond Green edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control1:05

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Desmond Green edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Desmond Green edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns3

Control0:56

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

78 / 144

Sig Strikes

55 / 146

53.7%

Sig Str %

37.3%

85 / 152

Total Strikes

55 / 146

4 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:01

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Charles Jourdain	15 / 41	15 / 41	0 / 0
1	Desmond Green	27 / 52	33 / 58	1 / 1
2	Charles Jourdain	21 / 48	21 / 48	0 / 0
2	Desmond Green	27 / 47	28 / 49	0 / 0
3	Charles Jourdain	19 / 57	19 / 57	0 / 0
3	Desmond Green	24 / 45	24 / 45	3 / 3

Desmond Green

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Charles Jourdain

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15