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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Derrick Lewis won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1481

Elo1359

Derrick LewisvsViktor PestaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · Saturday, October 3, 2015Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Derrick Lewis won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:15

Model Prediction: Viktor Pesta wins(51.8%)

Actual result: Derrick Lewis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Viktor Pesta at -170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Derrick Lewis is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Viktor Pesta has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Viktor Pesta has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Viktor Pesta has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Derrick Lewis

Red Corner

Viktor Pesta

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1481

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

200.66 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derrick LewisL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23

KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26

KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26

latest

Viktor PestaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ruslan Magomedov · May 14

vs Konstantin Erokhin · Jan 15

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Aug 16

SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Jan 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derrick LewisMetricViktor Pesta

2.46

Strikes / min

1.58

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

2.54

39%

Strike defense

56%

0.55

TDs / 15 min

3.29

52%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.11evenly matched on net striking-0.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Derrick LewisViktor Pesta

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Derrick Lewis(10 fights)Viktor Pesta(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +122.4|Blue -122.4

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -133.0|Blue +133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derrick LewisTargetViktor Pesta

By target zone

62% acc · 88%

Head

44% acc · 50%

100% acc · 12%

Body

100% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 25%

By position

23% acc · 7%

Distance

50% acc · 25%

100% acc · 24%

Clinch

0% acc

70% acc · 68%

Ground

75% acc · 75%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Derrick Lewis rounds

even

Viktor Pesta rounds

Round 1Viktor Pesta edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:13

4Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

4:05Control

Round 2Derrick Lewis edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:40

4Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:05Control

Round 3Derrick Lewis edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:36

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 63

Sig Strikes

8 / 13

57.7%

Sig Str %

45.7%

51 / 74

Total Strikes

47 / 61

0 / 3

TDs

5 / 13

TD %

27.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:29

Ctrl Time

7:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Viktor Pesta	4 / 5	22 / 26	3 / 7
1	Derrick Lewis	2 / 5	4 / 7	0 / 3
2	Viktor Pesta	4 / 7	24 / 33	2 / 5
2	Derrick Lewis	24 / 35	28 / 40	0 / 0
3	Viktor Pesta	0 / 1	1 / 2	0 / 1
3	Derrick Lewis	15 / 23	19 / 27	0 / 0

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights31

Viktor Pesta

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights5