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Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Derrick Lewis won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1481
Derrick Lewis
Elo1490

Derrick LewisvsTallison TeixeiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Saturday, July 12, 2025Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Derrick Lewis won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:35

Model Prediction: Tallison Teixeira wins(64.1%)

Actual result: Derrick Lewis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tallison Teixeira at -245 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Derrick Lewis is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Tallison Teixeira has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Tallison Teixeira is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Derrick Lewis has lost 75% of fights by KO.
  • Derrick Lewis has 52pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Tallison Teixeira has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Derrick Lewis
Red Corner
VS
Tallison Teixeira
Blue Corner
+186
(35%)
Vegas Odds
-245
(71%)
1481
Elo
1490
41
Age
26
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'7"
200.66 cm
Reach
210.82 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derrick LewisL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Jul 23
L
vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23
W
KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24
L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26
L
KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26
latest
Tallison Teixeira
oldest →
W
KOvs Justin Tafa · Feb 25
W
vs Tai Tuivasa · Jan 26
L
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derrick LewisMetricTallison Teixeira
2.46
Strikes / min
5.02
2.57
Strikes absorbed / min
3.86
39%
Strike defense
42%
0.55
TDs / 15 min
2.48
52%
Takedown defense
0%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.11Δ 1.27 — meaningful gap+1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1584 vs 1514Strikes2.5 vs 5.0Takedowns0.6 vs 2.5Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.2 vs 1.0
Derrick LewisTallison Teixeira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Derrick Lewis(10 fights)Tallison Teixeira(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -8.9|Blue +8.9
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +273.0|Blue -273.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derrick LewisTargetTallison Teixeira

By target zone

8
50% acc · 89%
Head
3
60% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 11%
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

2
33% acc · 22%
Distance
3
60% acc · 100%
1
50% acc · 11%
Clinch
0
6
67% acc · 67%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Derrick Lewis rounds
0
even
0
Tallison Teixeira rounds
Round 1Derrick Lewis edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:12
Knockdowns1
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
9 / 17
Sig Strikes
3 / 5
52%
Sig Str %
60%
10 / 21
Total Strikes
3 / 5
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:12
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Tallison Teixeira3 / 53 / 50 / 00
1Derrick Lewis9 / 1710 / 210 / 00

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights31

Tallison Teixeira

StanceOrthodox
Height79.0"
Reach83.0"
Fights4