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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Tai Tuivasa won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1481

Elo1453

Derrick LewisvsTai TuivasaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Saturday, February 12, 2022Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Tai Tuivasa won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:40

Model Prediction: Tai Tuivasa wins(74.1%)

Actual result: Tai Tuivasa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tai Tuivasa at +145 American odds

+$145 profit

$245 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tai Tuivasa enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Tai Tuivasa is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Derrick Lewis has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Tai Tuivasa (53.5%).
Derrick Lewis has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Derrick Lewis

Red Corner

Tai Tuivasa

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1481

Elo

1453

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'2"

200.66 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derrick LewisL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23

KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26

KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26

latest

Tai TuivasaL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Sep 23

SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Mar 24

vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 24

vs Tallison Teixeira · Jan 26

DECvs Louie Sutherland · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derrick LewisMetricTai Tuivasa

2.46

Strikes / min

3.37

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

4.61

39%

Strike defense

42%

0.55

TDs / 15 min

0.00

52%

Takedown defense

58%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.11Δ 1.13 — meaningful gap-1.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Derrick LewisTai Tuivasa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Derrick Lewis(10 fights)Tai Tuivasa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +28.8|Blue -28.8

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derrick LewisTargetTai Tuivasa

By target zone

62% acc · 89%

Head

55% acc · 50%

75% acc · 11%

Body

100% acc · 38%

Leg

60% acc · 13%

By position

52% acc · 41%

Distance

57% acc · 33%

67% acc · 30%

Clinch

73% acc · 67%

80% acc · 30%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Derrick Lewis rounds

even

Tai Tuivasa rounds

Round 1Derrick Lewis edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control1:24

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:06Control

Round 2Tai Tuivasa edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:24

Knockdowns0

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 43

Sig Strikes

24 / 36

61.5%

Sig Str %

66%

31 / 47

Total Strikes

35 / 47

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

33%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:48

Ctrl Time

2:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tai Tuivasa	14 / 21	25 / 32	0 / 0
1	Derrick Lewis	16 / 24	20 / 28	2 / 3
2	Tai Tuivasa	10 / 15	10 / 15	0 / 0
2	Derrick Lewis	11 / 19	11 / 19	0 / 1

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights31

Tai Tuivasa

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17