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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Derrick Lewis won · KO/TKO R4

Elo1481

Elo1447

Derrick LewisvsShamil AbdurakhimovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov · Friday, December 9, 2016Albany, New York, USA

Official fight result

Derrick Lewis won

KO/TKO · Round 4 · 3:42

Model Prediction: Derrick Lewis wins(55.3%)

Actual result: Derrick Lewis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Derrick Lewis at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Shamil Abdurakhimov enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Derrick Lewis is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Shamil Abdurakhimov has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Shamil Abdurakhimov has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Derrick Lewis

Red Corner

Shamil Abdurakhimov

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1481

Elo

1447

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

200.66 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derrick LewisL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23

KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26

KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26

latest

Shamil AbdurakhimovL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Apr 19

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Sep 19

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Sep 21

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Mar 22

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Jan 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derrick LewisMetricShamil Abdurakhimov

2.46

Strikes / min

2.41

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

3.02

39%

Strike defense

55%

0.55

TDs / 15 min

1.01

52%

Takedown defense

45%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.11evenly matched on net striking-0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Derrick LewisShamil Abdurakhimov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Derrick Lewis(10 fights)Shamil Abdurakhimov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +34.7|Blue -34.7

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +86.0|Blue -86.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derrick LewisTargetShamil Abdurakhimov

By target zone

40% acc · 82%

Head

22% acc · 33%

71% acc · 13%

Body

83% acc · 33%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

63% acc · 33%

By position

17% acc · 21%

Distance

22% acc · 33%

57% acc · 10%

Clinch

71% acc · 33%

73% acc · 69%

Ground

71% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Derrick Lewis rounds

even

Shamil Abdurakhimov rounds

Round 1Shamil Abdurakhimov edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:23

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:37Control

Round 2Shamil Abdurakhimov edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:00Control

Round 3Shamil Abdurakhimov edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:09

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:18Control

Round 4Derrick Lewis edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control1:10

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 90

Sig Strikes

15 / 37

34.8%

Sig Str %

35.8%

46 / 97

Total Strikes

77 / 106

1 / 3

TDs

4 / 11

25%

TD %

42.5%

Sub Att

Rev

1:42

Ctrl Time

7:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Shamil Abdurakhimov	4 / 11	23 / 31	1 / 5	1
1	Derrick Lewis	1 / 7	3 / 9	0 / 0	0
2	Derrick Lewis	7 / 14	9 / 16	0 / 0	0
2	Shamil Abdurakhimov	9 / 11	43 / 47	2 / 2	0
3	Shamil Abdurakhimov	1 / 8	8 / 19	1 / 2	0
3	Derrick Lewis	4 / 22	6 / 24	0 / 1	0
4	Shamil Abdurakhimov	1 / 7	3 / 9	0 / 2	0
4	Derrick Lewis	27 / 47	28 / 48	1 / 2	0

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights31

Shamil Abdurakhimov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights11