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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Sergei Pavlovich won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1481

Elo1538

Derrick LewisvsSergei PavlovichUFC Prediction Result

UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Saturday, July 30, 2022Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Sergei Pavlovich won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:55

Model Prediction: Sergei Pavlovich wins(78.9%)

Actual result: Sergei Pavlovich wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sergei Pavlovich at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sergei Pavlovich enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Derrick Lewis is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Sergei Pavlovich has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Sergei Pavlovich is a KO finisher (78% of wins). Derrick Lewis has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Sergei Pavlovich has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Sergei Pavlovich has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Sergei Pavlovich (53.5%).
Sergei Pavlovich has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Derrick Lewis

Red Corner

Sergei Pavlovich

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1481

Elo

1538

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'3"

200.66 cm

Reach

213.36 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derrick LewisL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23

KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26

KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26

latest

Sergei PavlovichW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tom Aspinall · Nov 23

vs Alexander Volkov · Jun 24

vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Feb 25

vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Aug 25

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derrick LewisMetricSergei Pavlovich

2.46

Strikes / min

4.43

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

3.62

39%

Strike defense

55%

0.55

TDs / 15 min

0.48

52%

Takedown defense

75%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.11evenly matched on net striking+0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Derrick LewisSergei Pavlovich

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Derrick Lewis(10 fights)Sergei Pavlovich(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -56.9|Blue +56.9

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derrick LewisTargetSergei Pavlovich

By target zone

50% acc · 50%

Head

63% acc · 100%

100% acc · 25%

Body

100% acc · 25%

Leg

By position

67% acc · 100%

Distance

64% acc · 93%

Clinch

Ground

50% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Derrick Lewis rounds

even

Sergei Pavlovich rounds

Round 1Sergei Pavlovich edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 6

Sig Strikes

15 / 24

66%

Sig Str %

62%

4 / 6

Total Strikes

15 / 24

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sergei Pavlovich	15 / 24	15 / 24	0 / 0	0
1	Derrick Lewis	4 / 6	4 / 6	0 / 0	0

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights31

Sergei Pavlovich

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights12