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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Derrick Lewis won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1481

Elo1500

Derrick LewisvsRodrigo NascimentoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · Saturday, May 11, 2024St. Louis, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Derrick Lewis won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:49

Model Prediction: Rodrigo Nascimento wins(62.5%)

Actual result: Derrick Lewis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Derrick Lewis is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Rodrigo Nascimento has lost 67% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Derrick Lewis

Red Corner

Rodrigo Nascimento

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1481

Elo

1500

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'2"

200.66 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derrick LewisL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Jul 23

vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26

KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26

latest

Rodrigo Nascimento

oldest →

KOvs Alan Baudot · Jul 21

vs Tanner Boser · Sep 22

vs Ilir Latifi · May 23

vs Don'Tale Mayes · Nov 23

vs Alexandr Romanov · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derrick LewisMetricRodrigo Nascimento

2.46

Strikes / min

3.71

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

4.34

39%

Strike defense

44%

0.55

TDs / 15 min

1.02

52%

Takedown defense

60%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.11evenly matched on net striking-0.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Derrick LewisRodrigo Nascimento

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Derrick Lewis(10 fights)Rodrigo Nascimento(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -18.8|Blue +18.8

Recent Form

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derrick LewisTargetRodrigo Nascimento

By target zone

51% acc · 80%

Head

53% acc · 59%

80% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 26%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

37% acc · 37%

Distance

40% acc · 30%

81% acc · 32%

Clinch

100% acc · 22%

72% acc · 32%

Ground

87% acc · 48%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Derrick Lewis rounds

even

Rodrigo Nascimento rounds

Round 1Rodrigo Nascimento edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control1:40

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:37Control

Round 2Derrick Lewis edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control1:35

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:09Control

Round 3Derrick Lewis edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:08

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 75

Sig Strikes

27 / 41

55%

Sig Str %

48.3%

47 / 81

Total Strikes

72 / 92

1 / 4

TDs

1 / 1

25%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

3:23

Ctrl Time

4:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rodrigo Nascimento	15 / 23	48 / 62	1 / 1
1	Derrick Lewis	9 / 17	15 / 23	1 / 2
2	Rodrigo Nascimento	12 / 15	24 / 27	0 / 0
2	Derrick Lewis	17 / 35	17 / 35	0 / 2
3	Rodrigo Nascimento	0 / 3	0 / 3	0 / 0
3	Derrick Lewis	15 / 23	15 / 23	0 / 0

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights31

Rodrigo Nascimento

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights8