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Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Mark Hunt won · KO/TKO R4
Elo1481
Derrick Lewis
Elo1369
Mark Hunt

Derrick LewisvsMark HuntUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · Saturday, June 10, 2017Auckland, New Zealand

Official fight result

Mark Hunt won

KO/TKO · Round 4 · 3:51

Model Prediction: Mark Hunt wins(60.2%)

Actual result: Mark Hunt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mark Hunt at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Mark Hunt enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Derrick Lewis is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Mark Hunt has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Mark Hunt is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Derrick Lewis has lost 75% of fights by KO.
  • Mark Hunt has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Derrick Lewis has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Derrick Lewis
Red Corner
VS
Mark Hunt
Blue Corner
-150
(60%)
Vegas Odds
+130
(43%)
1481
Elo
1369
41
Age
52
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
5'10"
200.66 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derrick LewisL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23
W
KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24
W
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25
L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26
L
KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26
latest
Mark HuntL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Frank Mir · Mar 16
L
KOvs Alistair Overeem · Mar 17
L
vs Curtis Blaydes · Feb 18
L
SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Sep 18
L
vs Justin Willis · Dec 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derrick LewisMetricMark Hunt
2.46
Strikes / min
2.81
2.57
Strikes absorbed / min
2.90
39%
Strike defense
51%
0.55
TDs / 15 min
0.51
52%
Takedown defense
64%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.11evenly matched on net striking-0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1584 vs 1528Strikes25.0 vs 27.2Takedowns0.4 vs 0.5Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.07Form1.0 vs -0.3
Derrick LewisMark Hunt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Derrick Lewis(10 fights)Mark Hunt(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +112.4|Blue -112.4
Recent Form
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Striker Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +13.0|Blue -13.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derrick LewisTargetMark Hunt

By target zone

34
30% acc · 67%
Head
37
41% acc · 63%
14
74% acc · 27%
Body
12
50% acc · 20%
3
38% acc · 6%
Leg
10
100% acc · 17%

By position

50
37% acc · 98%
Distance
52
44% acc · 88%
1
20% acc · 2%
Clinch
7
100% acc · 12%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Derrick Lewis rounds
0
even
2
Mark Hunt rounds
Round 1Derrick Lewis edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Derrick Lewis edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:00
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Mark Hunt edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:00
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Mark Hunt edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:00
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
51 / 139
Sig Strikes
59 / 125
37.8%
Sig Str %
44%
52 / 140
Total Strikes
59 / 125
0 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Mark Hunt5 / 185 / 180 / 00
1Derrick Lewis11 / 2512 / 260 / 10
2Derrick Lewis17 / 4117 / 410 / 10
2Mark Hunt14 / 3314 / 330 / 00
3Mark Hunt16 / 3616 / 360 / 00
3Derrick Lewis10 / 4410 / 440 / 10
4Mark Hunt24 / 3824 / 380 / 00
4Derrick Lewis13 / 2913 / 290 / 00

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights31

Mark Hunt

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights16