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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Derrick Lewis won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1481
Derrick Lewis
Elo1506

Derrick LewisvsMarcos Rogerio de LimaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Saturday, July 29, 2023Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Derrick Lewis won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:33

Model Prediction: Marcos Rogerio de Lima wins(56.2%)

Actual result: Derrick Lewis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcos Rogerio de Lima at -215 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Marcos Rogerio de Lima enters on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Marcos Rogerio de Lima is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Derrick Lewis has lost 75% of fights by KO.
  • Marcos Rogerio de Lima has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Derrick Lewis has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Derrick Lewis
Red Corner
VS
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Blue Corner
+185
(35%)
Vegas Odds
-215
(68%)
1481
Elo
1506
41
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'1"
200.66 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derrick LewisL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23
W
KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24
W
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25
L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26
L
KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26
latest
Marcos Rogerio de LimaW3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Ben Rothwell · Nov 21
L
vs Blagoy Ivanov · May 22
W
SUBvs Andrei Arlovski · Oct 22
W
vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Apr 23
W
KOvs Junior Tafa · Feb 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derrick LewisMetricMarcos Rogerio de Lima
2.46
Strikes / min
3.70
2.57
Strikes absorbed / min
2.90
39%
Strike defense
51%
0.55
TDs / 15 min
1.40
52%
Takedown defense
59%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.11evenly matched on net striking+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1573 vs 1539Strikes2.5 vs 3.7Takedowns0.6 vs 1.4Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.50Form-0.7 vs 0.7
Derrick LewisMarcos Rogerio de Lima

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Derrick Lewis(10 fights)Marcos Rogerio de Lima(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -24.6|Blue +24.6
Recent Form
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Striker Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derrick LewisTargetMarcos Rogerio de Lima

By target zone

16
50% acc · 94%
Head
1
100% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 6%
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

1
100% acc · 6%
Distance
0
0
Clinch
0
16
50% acc · 94%
Ground
1
100% acc · 100%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Derrick Lewis rounds
0
even
0
Marcos Rogerio de Lima rounds
Round 1Derrick Lewis edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:29
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
17 / 33
Sig Strikes
1 / 1
51%
Sig Str %
100%
20 / 36
Total Strikes
2 / 2
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:29
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Marcos Rogerio de Lima1 / 12 / 20 / 00
1Derrick Lewis17 / 3320 / 360 / 00

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights31

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights17