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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Derrick Lewis won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1481

Elo1495

Derrick LewisvsMarcin TyburaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · Sunday, February 18, 2018Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Derrick Lewis won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:48

Model Prediction: Marcin Tybura wins(52.8%)

Actual result: Derrick Lewis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcin Tybura at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Derrick Lewis is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Marcin Tybura has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Marcin Tybura has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Marcin Tybura has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Derrick Lewis

Red Corner

Marcin Tybura

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1481

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

200.66 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derrick LewisL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23

KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26

KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26

latest

Marcin TyburaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 24

KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Nov 24

vs Mick Parkin · Mar 25

KOvs Ante Delija · Sep 25

vs Tyrell Fortune · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derrick LewisMetricMarcin Tybura

2.46

Strikes / min

3.56

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

3.26

39%

Strike defense

55%

0.55

TDs / 15 min

1.30

52%

Takedown defense

70%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.11evenly matched on net striking+0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Derrick LewisMarcin Tybura

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Derrick Lewis(10 fights)Marcin Tybura(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +161.0|Blue -161.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derrick LewisTargetMarcin Tybura

By target zone

64% acc · 90%

Head

59% acc · 51%

100% acc · 7%

Body

73% acc · 22%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

77% acc · 27%

By position

54% acc · 23%

Distance

45% acc · 24%

75% acc · 10%

Clinch

100% acc · 14%

71% acc · 67%

Ground

74% acc · 62%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Derrick Lewis rounds

even

Marcin Tybura rounds

Round 1Derrick Lewis edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control2:10

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:20Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Marcin Tybura edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:50Control

Round 3Derrick Lewis edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns1

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:02Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 45

Sig Strikes

37 / 56

69%

Sig Str %

64.3%

32 / 47

Total Strikes

83 / 104

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 2

50%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:16

Ctrl Time

7:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marcin Tybura	6 / 10	26 / 31	0 / 0	1
1	Derrick Lewis	18 / 27	18 / 27	1 / 1	0
2	Marcin Tybura	21 / 31	43 / 54	1 / 1	0
2	Derrick Lewis	4 / 5	5 / 6	0 / 0	0
3	Marcin Tybura	10 / 15	14 / 19	0 / 1	0
3	Derrick Lewis	8 / 13	9 / 14	0 / 1	0

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights31

Marcin Tybura

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights24