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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Junior Dos Santos won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1481

Elo1393

Derrick LewisvsJunior Dos SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, March 9, 2019Wichita, Kansas, USA

Official fight result

Junior Dos Santos won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:58

Model Prediction: Junior Dos Santos wins(58.3%)

Actual result: Junior Dos Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Junior Dos Santos at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Junior Dos Santos enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Derrick Lewis is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Junior Dos Santos has lost 88% of fights by KO.
Junior Dos Santos is a KO finisher (55% of wins). Derrick Lewis has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Junior Dos Santos has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Junior Dos Santos has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Derrick Lewis

Red Corner

Junior Dos Santos

Blue Corner

+200

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-240

(71%)

1481

Elo

1393

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

200.66 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derrick LewisL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23

KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26

KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26

latest

Junior Dos SantosL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Dec 18

KOvs Francis Ngannou · Jun 19

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jan 20

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 20

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Dec 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derrick LewisMetricJunior Dos Santos

2.46

Strikes / min

4.49

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

3.33

39%

Strike defense

56%

0.55

TDs / 15 min

0.30

52%

Takedown defense

81%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.11Δ 1.27 — meaningful gap+1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Derrick LewisJunior Dos Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Derrick Lewis(10 fights)Junior Dos Santos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +88.8|Blue -88.8

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derrick LewisTargetJunior Dos Santos

By target zone

12% acc · 29%

Head

41% acc · 52%

50% acc · 43%

Body

70% acc · 24%

100% acc · 29%

Leg

88% acc · 24%

By position

29% acc · 100%

Distance

57% acc · 69%

Clinch

55% acc · 21%

0% acc

Ground

33% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Derrick Lewis rounds

even

Junior Dos Santos rounds

Round 1Junior Dos Santos edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Junior Dos Santos edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns0

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 25

Sig Strikes

29 / 55

24%

Sig Str %

54.5%

7 / 25

Total Strikes

29 / 55

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Junior Dos Santos	18 / 37	18 / 37	0 / 0
1	Derrick Lewis	6 / 16	6 / 16	0 / 0
2	Junior Dos Santos	11 / 18	11 / 18	0 / 0
2	Derrick Lewis	1 / 9	1 / 9	0 / 0

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights31

Junior Dos Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19