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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Derrick Lewis won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1481
Derrick Lewis
Elo1353

Derrick LewisvsJack MayUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne · Saturday, April 19, 2014Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Derrick Lewis won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:23

Model Prediction: Jack May wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Derrick Lewis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jack May at +260 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Derrick Lewis is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Jack May has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Derrick Lewis has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Jack May (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Derrick Lewis
Red Corner
VS
Jack May
Blue Corner
-290
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+260
(28%)
1481
Elo
1353
41
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
6'3"
Height
6'8"
200.66 cm
Reach
200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derrick LewisL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23
W
KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24
W
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25
L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26
L
KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26
latest
Jack May
oldest →
L
KOvs Shawn Jordan · Aug 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derrick LewisMetricJack May
2.46
Strikes / min
1.52
2.57
Strikes absorbed / min
3.29
39%
Strike defense
33%
0.55
TDs / 15 min
0.91
52%
Takedown defense
20%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.11Δ 1.66 — meaningful gap-1.77
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Derrick Lewis(10 fights)Jack May(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +128.0|Blue -128.0
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derrick LewisTargetJack May

By target zone

22
81% acc · 100%
Head
1
50% acc · 20%
0
Body
2
100% acc · 40%
0
Leg
2
100% acc · 40%

By position

0
Distance
2
67% acc · 40%
2
100% acc · 9%
Clinch
0
20
80% acc · 91%
Ground
3
100% acc · 60%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Derrick Lewis rounds
0
even
0
Jack May rounds
Round 1Derrick Lewis edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns1
Control1:48
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:51Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
22 / 27
Sig Strikes
5 / 6
81%
Sig Str %
83%
26 / 31
Total Strikes
23 / 24
1 / 1
TDs
1 / 3
100%
TD %
33%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
1
1:48
Ctrl Time
1:51

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jack May5 / 623 / 241 / 30
1Derrick Lewis22 / 2726 / 311 / 10

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights31

Jack May

StanceSwitch
Height80.0"
Reach—
Fights2