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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Derrick Lewis won · U-DEC R3

Elo1481

Elo1497

Derrick LewisvsIlir LatifiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · Saturday, February 8, 2020Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Derrick Lewis won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Derrick Lewis wins(53.3%)

Actual result: Derrick Lewis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Derrick Lewis at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ilir Latifi has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ilir Latifi has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Derrick Lewis has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Derrick Lewis

Red Corner

Ilir Latifi

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+185

(35%)

1481

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'10"

200.66 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derrick LewisL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23

KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26

KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26

latest

Ilir Latifi

oldest →

vs Corey Anderson · Dec 18

KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Aug 19

vs Tanner Boser · Jun 21

vs Aleksei Oleinik · Oct 22

vs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derrick LewisMetricIlir Latifi

2.46

Strikes / min

2.05

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

2.93

39%

Strike defense

56%

0.55

TDs / 15 min

2.11

52%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.11evenly matched on net striking-0.88

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Derrick LewisIlir Latifi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Derrick Lewis(10 fights)Ilir Latifi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -15.7|Blue +15.7

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derrick LewisTargetIlir Latifi

By target zone

31% acc · 60%

Head

25% acc · 40%

80% acc · 40%

Body

100% acc · 20%

0% acc

Leg

67% acc · 40%

By position

32% acc · 60%

Distance

38% acc · 60%

67% acc · 40%

Clinch

50% acc · 40%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Derrick Lewis rounds

even

Ilir Latifi rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:29

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:25Control

Round 2Ilir Latifi edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:08

2Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:17Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:04

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:07Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 50

Sig Strikes

5 / 12

37.7%

Sig Str %

57.7%

27 / 58

Total Strikes

62 / 77

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 7

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:41

Ctrl Time

8:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ilir Latifi	2 / 6	6 / 10	0 / 3
1	Derrick Lewis	7 / 13	13 / 19	0 / 1
2	Ilir Latifi	2 / 5	32 / 40	2 / 2
2	Derrick Lewis	2 / 13	2 / 14	0 / 0
3	Ilir Latifi	1 / 1	24 / 27	1 / 2
3	Derrick Lewis	11 / 24	12 / 25	0 / 0

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights31

Ilir Latifi

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights16