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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Derrick Lewis won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1481
Derrick Lewis
Elo1354

Derrick LewisvsGuto InocenteUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale · Sunday, July 6, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Derrick Lewis won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:30

Model Prediction: Derrick Lewis wins(75.5%)

Actual result: Derrick Lewis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Derrick Lewis at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Derrick Lewis is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Guto Inocente has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Guto Inocente has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Derrick Lewis
Red Corner
VS
Guto Inocente
Blue Corner
-185
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
1481
Elo
1354
41
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'3"
200.66 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derrick LewisL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23
W
KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24
W
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25
L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26
L
KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26
latest
Guto Inocente
oldest →
L
SUBvs Anthony Perosh · Nov 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derrick LewisMetricGuto Inocente
2.46
Strikes / min
4.13
2.57
Strikes absorbed / min
2.92
39%
Strike defense
54%
0.55
TDs / 15 min
0.67
52%
Takedown defense
66%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.11Δ 1.32 — meaningful gap+1.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1514 vs 1500Strikes22.0 vs —Takedowns1.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form1.0 vs 0.0
Derrick LewisGuto Inocente

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Derrick Lewis(10 fights)Guto Inocente(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +127.7|Blue -127.7
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derrick LewisTargetGuto Inocente

By target zone

4
33% acc · 67%
Head
0
0% acc
2
100% acc · 33%
Body
5
100% acc · 83%
0
0% acc
Leg
1
100% acc · 17%

By position

1
11% acc · 17%
Distance
3
60% acc · 50%
2
67% acc · 33%
Clinch
3
100% acc · 50%
3
75% acc · 50%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Derrick Lewis rounds
0
even
0
Guto Inocente rounds
Round 1Derrick Lewis edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control1:33
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
6 / 16
Sig Strikes
6 / 8
37%
Sig Str %
75%
7 / 17
Total Strikes
8 / 10
1 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
50%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:33
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Guto Inocente6 / 88 / 100 / 00
1Derrick Lewis6 / 167 / 171 / 20

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights31

Guto Inocente

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach—
Fights2